5GW Effectors

effector

A molecule, chemical, or structure that regulates a pathway by increasing or decreasing the pathway’s reaction rate.

An organ (a gland or muscle) that becomes active in response to nerve impulses.

A nerve fiber that terminates on a muscle or gland and stimulates contraction or secretion.

Actions carried out by nervous impulses and hormones that are activated by receptors. [Biology-Online.org]

end effector

In robotics, an end effector is a device or tool connected to the end of a robot arm. The structure of an end effector, and the nature of the programming and hardware that drives it, depends on the intended task. [Whatis?com]

ef•fec•tor

n. One who brings about a result or event; one who accomplishes a purpose.

[via Webster’s Online Dictionary, The Rosetta Edition™]

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Long Preamble

Recently, I suggested at tdaxp the possibility that successive, seemingly random events might be used against an enemy to weaken or destroy that enemy as a strategy in fifth-generation warfare:

I was thinking more along the lines of a scenario in which multiple, seemingly unrelated events hurt one nation (or a group of nations) repeatedly, as if “the hand of God” were behind those events: say, one major terrorist act, one major financial crisis, one upsurge in bird-flu, one natural disaster, one powergrid failure, and a case of a targeting error in some ongoing conflict (killing many innocents), over the period of 9 or 15 months.

At first, Dan considered the possibility that the SecretWarrior would walk without rhythm to avoid attracting the worm, until it occurred to him that random occurrences have a tendency to draw attention, something the SecretWarrior would not want:

Because randomness is very attractive, a succession of “random” catastrophes striking a nation will be very, very suspicious. People are superstitious — they are gifted with “fingertip feeling” or Fingerspitzengefuhl — and will implicitly decide that something is doing this to them. To a 5GWarrior, who cannot afford to have her cover exposed, a paranoid victim is a dangerous victim.

These considerations led me to wonder about the type of activity that would be utilized in 5GW and what kind of actor.

Dan gave an example of a “Plain Jane” who does not draw attention to herself as she attempts to kill the “Yakuza Boss” on a dance floor — and my first question was whether a Plain Jane would be allowed into the party or the club, although I didn’t ask it at the time. Instead, I wondered whether randomness, when expected, would serve to obfuscate whatever patterns might actually be present: the target who expects randomness is less likely to see hidden patterns, especially when occurrences do have a “seeming randomness” to them.

The expected randomness, because it is expected, would create the regularity Dan said might lull the target.

On the other hand, the Plain Jane (were she even allowed into the party) most likely wouldn’t approach the yakuza boss directly, in a straight line aimed at him. Her movements would be random: she would take an offered drink, she would walk to the man who bought it for her to chat him up, she would dance to a song, she would go to the bathroom to powder her nose (heh, not Pulp Fiction, but Kill Bill vol. I), etc. A straight line to the yakuza boss would be an easily definable rhythm, one foot after the next on the path to her prey.

Dan gave an example of randomness that is attractive, attention-grabbing: a radio station that plays music from several different decades in no particular order. I thought that the random song wasn’t likely to be Egyptian, German, etc., or classical music: the randomness still has a definable, indeed an expected, parameter.

Surrounding these thoughts came others:

1. The yakuza boss, when killed, would no longer appear to be alive. That is, if an action occurs, its effects are always observable, even if we don’t happen to see the action itself.
2. What kind of effects will a 5GW warrior desire? What kind of activity will the 5GW warrior attempt in order to obtain the results desired? Specifically, why would a 5GW warrior engage in activity the results of which are entirely unobservable; would such results truly be results, if they do not produce cascading effects or a changed reality?
3. If results are observable, to what degree can the “secret” in terms such as SecretWar and SecretWarrior, obtain or persist?

In fact, I began to wonder if an entirely secret SecretWar is possible, and I wondered if maybe the concept of an absolutely secret SecretWar has led some of our recent brainstorming on 5GW down the wrong path. If, indeed, absolute secrecy is impossible, then a SecretWarrior might need to shape the processes by which her opponent reacts to the effects of 5GW.

Crossing the Rubicon

When the yakuza boss is dead, he’s dead. Anything that happens after Plain Jane’s action will not change the fact that he’s dead. His closest associates will likely know that he’s been assassinated, unless his death is made to look natural in all respects. In fact, Plain Jane might not care if his associates know he’s been assassinated, because the world after his death will no longer be what it was before his death, and that would have been her objective after all.

His associates may scramble to fill the vacuum, possibly warring with one another and laying blame for his death on one another. A rival gang may see the power struggles and attack, entirely destroying or subsuming the now-leaderless gang. If the dead yakuza boss already had an appointed heir, that heir may be of inferior quality or have plans for the gang which vary greatly from the dead yakuza boss’s method of running the outfit. Alternatively, the heir may follow entirely in his predecessor’s footsteps and refuse any suggestions for improvements or variations on the pre-existing scheme.

What exactly follows the yakuza boss’s death isn’t particularly important, because Plain Jane already knew what would happen following the death: that is why she killed the man.

The SecretWarrior will not care if the effects of 5GW activity are apparent if the effects leave her adversaries on the other side of the rubicon. This would be a case of “knowing too late,” in that the sudden revelation that a SecretWar had been underway in no way mitigates whatever position in which the target now finds itself: The target would have a new set of circumstances requiring immediate attention which could not be ignored, and from which the target is unlikely to emerge unscathed. A successful 5GW will leave the target on a downward spiral into insignificance. The target’s knowing it has been a victim won’t save the target from the spiral.

At the same time, some effects of 5GW pre-conclusion may be apparent to the target, thus influencing the target to cross the rubicon, although the target will not know that he’s about to cross such a rubicon. Motivating the target to move down to the river, and to cross it, would require observable effects, problems to solve, the solving of which can only be effected by going to and then across the river. If the target at any time senses it is being manipulated down a path, the target will resist and the SecretWarrior risks being discovered.

The SecretWarrior as Benefactor

Phil at tdaxp has recently offered thumbnail character sketches of possible SecretWarriors:

In 4GW the enemy attempts to use the target country’s media as a vehicle to sap the people’s and political leaders’ will to fight. In 5GW the enemy actually becomes the media and the political leadership. In 4GW a terrorist organization might attack a school or a courthouse in order to show that the government can’t defend itself; in 5GW the enemy would become the teachers and judges. It doesn’t get much deeper than that.

Like the first commenter in that thread, I immediately questioned the sketch work. It has the Red Scare sound, brings to mind the House Un-American Activities Committee, and such a comparison would serve to distinguish 5GW warriors from what has gone before: even the smallest hint of variation in character, philosophy, or creed will out the SecretWarrior, or at least attract too much attention.

So Dan’s Plain Jane has this limit. In the yakuza boss’s world, plain would likely be only too obvious. A Plain Jane probably wouldn’t be allowed into the type of club the yakuza boss frequented; if she was, she’d likely stand out from the other women. The best person to assassinate the yakuza boss undetected would be an associate or someone with whom the yakuza boss is on very close terms. The assassin might even be a Brutus, the yakuza boss’s best friend.

Dan’s consideration of rhythm and randomness is important in the way it brings “framing” into the discussion of 5GW. (See Anger Management’s recent considerations on “framing” here and here.) The radio station that randomly selects songs from different decades nonetheless selects songs within a certain framework — pop and rock, or country western, English language songs, etc. — and the randomness enjoyed by that station’s listener seems particularly “random” because so many other radio stations do not select their music the same way. The common thread running through those songs goes unquestioned because that thread already conforms to the listener’s most basic expectations (inner framework); whereas, the expectation of a limited selection (per other radio stations) is subverted in the selection of songs from many different decades (outer framework).

In order to remain secret, the SecretWarrior would need to avoid drawing the attention of the targeted society, NGO, or nation. Anything, anything which might suggest an unusual motivation will draw attention. When considering Phil’s thumb sketches, I realized that a 5GW warrior-organization isn’t likely to be able to insert so many operatives into the schools, government agencies, churches, etc., because 1) the more people who are “in on the plan,” the more chances for leaks and switched loyalties, and 2) chances increase that the internal framing — opposition to the target — of those operatives will lead to external displays of that framing, and suspicion of the operatives will occur. A single 5GW intelligence — the mastermind — will not even consider planting so many operatives into a targeted society.

One feature of HUAC was its targeting of media, particularly of Hollywood, in the search for Commie Sympathizers. In modern America, the media is consistently the target of speculation and paranoia, more so now perhaps than before. Any 5GW warrior who sought to use the media to influence or turn a society runs into the barrier of skepticism, particularly when whatever message is chosen is likely to have so many opponents within the society. The easiest use of media would be to inspire internal strife and conflict, especially given the tendency toward skepticism. Using the media to create unsuspecting pawns may actually be effective, and this may lead to terrorist activity or other covert activity against a target within its own society; but, again, many within the society will be suspicious of media’s role and at least somewhat aware that some members of its society have been so affected by the media: such opposition to the society is not 5GW activity, anyway, although it may serve to distract the target.

I was very aware of Phil’s suggestion that our neighbors will be SecretWarriors, and this plays into what Dan suggested about the Plain Jane. It also plays into the consideration of one of the commenters at tdaxp, who suggested that jujitsu tactics will be used, or a target’s “weight” will be used against the target. The only type of SecretWarrior who will be able to move freely about without ever raising suspicions will be the one whose activity most matches the expectations of the targeted society, the internal and external framework most shared by the members of that society: most likely, that society itself.

No society is 100% homogenous, but the most influential members of the society (whether the society is a small group or a nation) are those who can promise the most benefit to the other members of society, whether the benefit is material in nature or psychological or social. To give an example: should a string of natural and not-so-natural disasters occur, those leaders, thinkers, and other members of a society who are able to mitigate or nullify the effects of those disasters are most likely to have the freest reins. They are certainly more likely to avoid suspicion — if, and only if, their efforts actually seem to lead, and ultimately do lead, to benefits.

A society that believes it’s moving toward a better future is a society less suspicious. The distrust of leaders (whether governmental or academic or social or business), combined with uncertain forecasts, elevates suspicion, doubt, and resistance; but a society in which vast numbers of its members believe they are co-authors of the success, co-conspirators in progress, will happily walk to the river and the Promised Land on the other side of that river.

In order for a target of 5GW to never have a suspicion that a war had ever occurred, that target would need to be left with the impression that it had succeeded in its endeavors. So while a successful 5GW might leave a target in a hopeless downward spiral — all too obvious to the helpless victim — it might also leave the victim with the feeling of success, albeit a success much smaller than would have been achieved if 5GW had not occurred.

Tao Te Ching #17

The best of all rulers is but a shadowy presence to his subjects.
Next comes the ruler they love and praise;
Next comes one they fear;
Next comes one with whom they take liberties.

When there is not enough faith, there is lack of good faith.

Hesitant, he does not utter words lightly.
When his task is accomplished and his work done
The people all say, 'It happened to us naturally.'

[trans. D.C. Lau]