‘Global Guerrillas’ as 5GW Warriors

Key #1: System Perturbations

Anyone with eyes to see will see that John Robb and Thomas Barnett accept not only the reality of system perturbations, but also their utility.  Robb’s a little less clear on their utility, because he focuses on the destructive, chaos-generating aspects without offering much in the way of explanation for why his GG’s will create chaos.  This causes his theory to appear incoherent:  it is a theory for demons.  However, without delving deeply enough into this aspect of his own GG theory, Robb does offer an explanation of utility:

1. His GG’s will have a fairly stable ‘bazaar of violence,’
2. That bazaar of violence will be maintained via a fairly stable ‘black globalization,’
3. And these will lead to ‘virtual states.’

So both theories actually suppose a utility for system perturbation.  As Arherring wrote in his post, the over-arching operational dynamic in both theories can be summarized thus:  Rule-set – System perturbation – New rule-set.

Key #2: Both Will Operate in Secret — Mostly

This is where Robb’s theory cleaves more closely to 5GW thought than Barnett’s, although TPMB’s most recent brainstorming session offered a dream of secrecy (quite publicly!!)  However, whereas GG’s themselves fade into the woodwork, the operative forces in Barnett’s dream are quite invisible:  democracy and capitalism.

You might think that Barnett’s Secret Warriors are entirely visible, especially when he takes great pains to discuss absolute transparency; but don’t believe it.  In the same way that GG’s fade into the woodwork but their effects are quite visible (destroyed oil pipelines, for instance), democracy and capitalism are very powerful memes whose effects will be visible.   A dollar is only an idea, even if we attach that idea to paper.  So is this GG idea of ‘bazaar of violence’:  there may be a market or a black market, and weapons for sale; but it is the idea of having access to these things, as well as the idea that they may be used in particular ways, that is the real bazaar.  ‘Globalization’ and ‘black globalization’ are similar memes.

I have said many times: the hardest thing to track is a meme.  But I have never given an explanation for why this is so.  Here it is:  memes do not travel.  They are not transmitted.  They emerge.  Within individuals.  This is OODA.  Network theorists might postulate a series of concrete effects, or causes, leading to such emergence, and collectively call each set of effects ‘meme’ for explaining how quite similar memes emerge in diverse locations; and they’re welcome to do so, because that itself is a useful meme.  However, these network theorists should keep in mind this from Mark Safranski:  “SP’s [System Perturbations] can also be natural (Tsunami, Hurricaine Katrina) and unintended ( Crash of 1929) or emerge from a confluence of lesser events acting in synergy.“   Network theory will not make tracking the emergence of memes any easier, most of the time, although it might suggest ways to promote the emergence of very similar memes in a broad-scale albeit ‘untargeted’ manner.  (Think current EBO practices and guided missiles: those missiles are much easier to target than these complex sets of meme-creating SP’s.)

And besides this consideration of the emergence of memes, Barnett’s secrecy can also be ascertained in the way that he wants to sell a particular brand of ‘interconnectivity’ to a particular segment of the world population without also revealing to them how such interconnectivity also brings heavy responsibilities and a limitation on freedom of action.  So far, those intransigents within the Gap (and perhaps a few in the New Core, and maybe some in the Core) are not likely to be fooled by the message he is giving  — perhaps because he has forsaken secrecy by advocating so much transparency via his transparent and very public activity.  (None of this should be taken as a proof that ‘transparency’ cannot be a deceptive meme enabling secrecy, however…)

Key #3: Emergence and Generations of Warfare

The latest round of conversation on 5GW is, I think, a signal of the much deeper dynamic now emerging globally.  Barnett and Robb have both been recently inspired to tie their theories to emerging theories of 5GW.  Hitherto, they have been developing their theories to address environments which already appear to be emerging, without trying so much to tie their theories to Lind’s generations of warfare model:  and that’s the way it should be.  New generations of warfare emerge, as a consequence of what has gone before (the prior generation of warfare) but also in response to emerging dynamics in other areas and on the world stage.

True, Robb has been more motivated to consider Lind’s framework while developing his theory; but any careful reader can see that his primary focus has been upon the world, not Lind’s framework.  In fact, I think it might be fair to suggest that Robb’s incoherent references to generations of warfare  — GG is 4GW; no, it’s 4GW+; no, it’s 5GW — have been more the result of his desire to market his theory than a result of anything else.  When he says, most recently, that what you call GG is not so important as what he has been outlining over the months, you begin to see how the references to Lind have only ever been tangential, to this point.  However, ironically, marketing GG may be a 5GW move.

5GW will occur not because we have theorized it, but because the situation on the street leads to its development or emergence.  I think, then, it would be fair to consider both Barnett’s theory and Robb’s theory with this in mind: that they have both been looking at the world, trying to develop coherent models to describe what they have seen.  Beyond fairness, I think that any understanding of 5GW will need to account for the emerging global dynamics in order to have any utility.  To the degree that you, the person reading the work of these two strategists, can see a valid consideration of these global dynamics — even if much static is also presented — you must consider how those valid considerations will tie into 5GW.

Key #4: Superempowerment of the Individual

This phrase is bandied about altogether too much.  This phrase is very, very important for understanding what future awaits us.  Taking the phrase seriously, we should also say that this phrase is very, very important for understanding what future we will create.  I.e., the future is not merely something awaiting us; if it is filled with ‘superempowered individuals,’ then that future may be what those individuals will be creating.  I say the phrase is bandied about too much, because I do not believe we always have a very clear concept of what it means and may therefore tend to use it in a limited sense to support whatever biased prediction we are promoting.

Anyone conducting 5GW must necessarily have a very strong faith in the superempowerment of the individual.  For Robb’s part, his faith is in the destructive capability, fueled mostly by technology but also by advanced social organization of individuals.  For Barnett’s part, the empowerment is fueled not only by technology but also by increased democratic and capitalistic freedoms.  Now, who can say that these two theorists are so very, very different?  I know that Christian Soldiers’ RevG also has faith in the coming reality of the superempowered individual.  Readers of Dreaming 5GW must also by now know that my tendency to look at 5GW through the lens of memetic engineering, coupled with what I have said about memes above, means I must also have a strong faith in the power of the superempowered individual:  memes emerge within individuals; if you ‘gain hands in the field,’ you are conducting 5GW properly.

I have recently criticized Robb’s theory by suggesting that a belief only in demons is myopic theorizing; one must also believe in angels.  But never forget the demons.

Unlocking the Door: ‘GG’ 5GWarriors

From these keys, we might finally unlock a future for Global Guerrillas theory.

The reason that Robb’s theory has repeatedly sustained charges of incoherency is simply that he has not considered angels, or superempowered builders of order and stability, even while accidentally suggesting something similar via his three pillars of GG:  a bazaar of violence, black globalization, and virtual states.

GG’s will develop within and as a result of emerging global dynamics — but they will have in mind very specific orders they wish to create; or, in Barnett-speak, rule-sets.

However, these various GG rule-sets will emerge in multiple places, as the result of slightly or perhaps very different observations or of different immediate concrete effects / environments.  In Robb-speak, this means that the various GG factions will have no ‘common’ motivation.  He once said that they will have a similar objective; and, I responded at the time that a similar objective is a similar motivation, insofar as objectives motivate individuals to act.  But let’s say that the similar motivation is very broad: it is the creation of an order, or of viable and successful rule-sets, although the specific natures of these may not be alike across the groups and the scale may be quite local rather than global.

The different GG’s may appear to have different motivations and may be acting separately to achieve them or occasionally together, because the superempowerment of the individual allows this. They are then less dependent on each other or on large and complex ‘networks.’  Secrecy also allows this, whether it is their physically hiding in the woodwork or their memetic engineering through selective system perturbation.

Much of this will by now sound very 5GW, of course.

Here’s the final key, which will move our consideration from the clicking lock to the creaking of hinges; and, I take it from Robb’s general negative outlook:

Key #5: Incoherence and Chaos in a 5GW World

If we are considering the emergence of 5GW, in collusion with the increasing superempowerment of individuals who are themselves developing a growing awareness of emerging global dynamics, we should have no problem postulating the emergence of many 5GW warriors.  Anyone with eyes to see and ears to hear may be motivated to try their hand at shaping future rule-sets, by whatever means possible.  This, of course, may make the job of Grand Strategist 5GWarriors (Barnett et al.) so much more difficult, since system perturbations not of their own devising will modify the emergence of concrete effects as well as the emergence of memes in unpredictable ways.  More importantly: all this activity will make the job difficult for the various independent 5GW warriors emerging as well.  Sound like a chaotic situation?

Robb’s GG will be the inept ones:  causing perturbations will be the easy part, but accomplishing the new rule-sets may be beyond them.