Initiating 5GW

“Truly formless 5gw,” Younghusband on Coming Anarchy

”5GW: Soundless + Formless + Polished + Leading,” Dan on tdaxp

”Riding the Tiger,” Chet Richards

”Emergent Intelligence in Open Source Warfare,” John Robb on Global Guerrillas

And on Phatic Communion:

• ”5GW Effectors”
• ”(Blog Notice) 5GW”
• ”Limitations of 5GW”
• ”5GW Tutorial”
  

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5GW: Greek Tragedy

Recent conversation at Coming Anarchy has motivated me to revisit the subject 5GW: fifth-generation warfare, with a slightly different focus than I have already used — and, generally, with a different focus than has been used by Dan of tdaxp and most recently by Younghusband of Coming Anarchy.

Much of the prior focus has outlined the most general aspects of theoretical 5GW.  For instance, both Dan and Younghusband have recently focused on a broad outline of how 5GW might operate, paying attention to OODA loops and how the loops can be used — or, even, subverted — by the 5GWarrior.  Dan tdaxp, as can be surmised from the title of the link to tdaxp above, has, in particular, devoted much time to the theoretical qualities of 5GW: soundlessness, formlessness, polish, leadership — and secrecy.  These are qualities that may inform the actual decisions and activities of 5GWarriors, they are pointers for anyone wishing to engage in 5GW or wishing to defend against 5GW, but they are not themselves the actual decisions and activities we might expect in 5GW.

At the recent Coming Anarchy thread, one commenter wondered about something that has been asked before at tdaxp in discussions concerning 5GW:  how does 5GW differ from 4GW?  4GWarriors are often fuzzy, may be quite indistinct, and use tactics to confuse their opponents or overwhelm their opponents’ control over a situation.  4GWarriors may be involved in loose networks, with cells hardly cooperating directly with one another, and largely depend for their success on an emergent order over which they, themselves, have little individual control. [Tangentially, John Robb’s concept of “emergent intelligence” speaks to this last point — also contemplated here at P.C.in “Emergence and Warfare: Notes and Hypotheses.”]  When speaking of secrecy and formlessness, the fuzzy image we have of 4GW insurgents or global guerrillas, who may hide among civilians and have few known identities and known locations, may lead us to question how 5GW can be distinguished from 4GW.  If leading our opponents to where we want them to be is a description of 5GW, it is nevertheless also a description of 4GW and a tactic utilized in even earlier forms of warfare.  Polished warriors have been the best, going as far back as human conflict.

In comments to the thread at Coming Anarchy, Dan reintroduced the concept of greater effectiveness for succeeding generations of warfare — a 5GWarrior would, theoretically, be 20x as strong as a 4GWarrior, or able to kill (or neutralize) 20-times more 4GW opponents as a 4GWarrior would his 5GW foes.  Whatever the actual number, such a concept makes sense, or else there would be no evolutionary reason for succeeding generations of warfare.  But the concept makes claims which have yet to be supported in our theory of 5GW, since we do not have a clear concept of how the 5GW neutralizes 20x 4GW opponents if the two are in combat.  I mentioned this problem at Coming Anarchy:

Dan’s broad characterization of the effectiveness of 5GW forces who are fighting prior-generation forces is a little too abstract or even inconsequential, since it does not describe exactly how a 5GW force may fight a 4GW force. I’m talking, nuts and bolts. Consider the effective 4GW forces that have emerged in modern times; then ponder how a shadowy—indeed, a formless—5GW force will fight a 4GW force in order to achieve the 20x advantage.

I.e., I know that previously I’ve been considering how a 5GW force might defeat a society or NGO or coalition of states—without giving much thought to how the force would combat other actual military forces. It’s much easier to see how a 5GW might destroy a state than it is to see how a hidden organization might defeat a fuzzy 4GW force.

This is a major problem in the theory of 5GW.  Although we have a working theory of broad qualities of 5GW, I wonder if we can think our way through proofs of these qualities.  In Greek tragedies, some disguised god or goddess would lend a strategic hand or lay traps for the protagonist; and, in 5GW mythology, we so far have dreams of such gods and goddesses who accomplish their tasks with magic.  We do not really know how they do it.

5GW: The Power of the Gods

I have previously approached consideration of an outline of definite actions for 5GWarriors in two of the linked P.C. entries listed above.  In the first, I considered “effectors,” which, for a theory of 5GW, is a pretty good term:

ef•fec•tor

n. One who brings about a result or event; one who accomplishes a purpose.

[via Webster’s Online Dictionary, The Rosetta Edition™]

In order to develop an idea of actual 5GW activity, we must have a realistic concept of 5GW actors.  However, in discussions with Dan tdaxp, I have previously mentioned the god-like quality of these actors:

I was thinking more along the lines of a scenario in which multiple, seemingly unrelated events hurt one nation (or a group of nations) repeatedly, as if “the hand of God” were behind those events: say, one major terrorist act, one major financial crisis, one upsurge in bird-flu, one natural disaster, one power grid failure, and a case of a targeting error in some ongoing conflict (killing many innocents), over the period of 9 or 15 months.

Dan thought that such a repetition of disasters — however unrelated on the surface — would tip off a target that something unnatural was happening; but, I thought that these types of disasters stood a good chance of accomplishing some goals for a 5GWarrior, since in the first case, a targeted nation would be forced into a reactionary stance to each disaster — would be occupied mitigating the destruction — and in the second case, these things might each suggest a multiplicity of causes.  A nation suffering these disasters might even be prone to blame itself; indeed, a lot of internal bickering about “laying the blame” could distract the nation from discerning a SecretWarrior.

In another slim post (broadly called “5GW Tutorial’ — linked above), I contemplated the possibility that bin Laden and other actors on the world stage may have taken the Katrina Disaster Lesson: just look at how America can become self-preoccupied as a result of “natural” disasters.  Was the disaster in New Orleans a natural disaster?  Yes, some will say:  The hurricane was an act of God.  Others may say: No, we failed to prepare in advance, we neglected the levies, we have a very bad system of state and federal response to disasters, residents of New Orleans failed to leave the city when warned; the disaster was a result of human failure.  Was it a natural disaster?

If we are to consider how a 5GW effector may lead an opponent down a destructive path, or how a 5GW effector may distract an opponent in potentially disastrous ways, we cannot dismiss the possibility of man-made “natural” disasters.  But catastrophes have the potential of “outing” 5GWarriors.  When writing the entry about Katrina, I pondered the possibility that a terrorist could have placed bombs at strategic locations along the levees in New Orleans and set them off as the hurricane hit.  This would have offered the best chance that he might have had to accomplish the task without being discovered — but such an action would have risked discovery anyway as debris was examined.  (Those studying why the levees failed would have noticed burn and blast marks.)  A viral epidemic could be created by a 5GWarrior, but some geneticist could perhaps track the spread back to a source nation or a source lab.

In Effectors, I posed three questions I’ll reintroduce here:

1. The yakuza boss, when killed, would no longer appear to be alive. That is, if an action occurs, its effects are always observable, even if we don’t happen to see the action itself.
   


2. What kind of effects will a 5GW warrior desire? What kind of activity will the 5GW warrior attempt in order to obtain the results desired? Specifically, why would a 5GW warrior engage in activity the results of which are entirely unobservable; would such results truly be results, if they do not produce cascading effects or a changed reality?
   


3. If results are observable, to what degree can the “secret” in terms such as SecretWar and SecretWarrior, obtain or persist?

In 5GW discussions, I and others have contemplated the utility of playing forces against each other.  Younghusband in the recent Coming Anarchy thread considered something similar:

It reminds me of The Usual Suspects and the legendary crimelord Keyser Sozé. Was he an actual person or simply a myth resulting from a series of loosely related crimes? “The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.” Could the opposite be true? Could the greatest trick a terrorist movement ever pull is convincing the world that it did exist? I could see how warring on this myth (effectively a figment of the paranoid imagination) to the ends of the earth could definitely bankrupt a state.

So, to recap, Dan’s version of 5GW has a key player acting behind the scenes that cannot be OBSERVEd. Younghusband’s version has a non-existent actor that is being perceived as OBSERVEable.

In that last paragraph, the Hidden Actor and the Observed Chimera are really two sides of the same coin.  No organization could “trick” an opponent into seeing the chimera if it, the hidden organization, did not exist — because non-entities cannot act!  Now, whether the Observed opponent is real or imaginary will make real difference in the 5GW, since different goals will have different requirements for how the target should be misled; but in general, the end results will be the same as far as the 5GWarrior is concerned.  So a non-natural natural disaster could be laid at the feet of a real or imaginary proxy or patsy, although, again, one must wonder if a real patsy would stand up and say, “Uh, we hate you, but we did not do it!”  In fact, the 5GWarrior’s best option in such a case may seem to be the creation of an imaginary foe for its victim to fight, just as Younghusband described.  No actual foe could be found because the non-existing Observed Foe does not exist.  The paradox of such an action, unfortunately, undermines the 5GWarrior: as the victim attempts to outline its Observed Foe in greater detail, the victim will be looking for the 5GWarrior! They are the same coin.  So explosives, viruses, etc., will be examined, and there is always a chance that some bit of forensic evidence will lead back to the actual 5GWarrior.

Thus, the better bet for a 5GWarrior would be to frame an actual organization — but an organization that the victim will not believe no matter the number of denials issued by that organization.  But the best bet would be to first find an organization that hates the primary target and is more than willing to accept responsibility for whatever disasters beset the victim.  The problem with this tactic is simply the fact that the patsy might eventually have a change of heart or might be destroyed by the primary victim; out of desperation, the patsy may deny ever having been complicit.

But then, as mentioned in Effectors in answer to my own question about ultimate secrecy, the 5GWarrior may not care if his designs become fully known if the primary victim has already been forced to cross the rubicon.  If the victim is already in a downward spiral from which he cannot emerge, then no revelation of deception will do the victim any good.  Many unnatural natural disasters are of a type that require immediate attention that will serve to preoccupy a target or force a dissipation of powers to the point of allowing no exhaustive search for Actors real or imagined, anyway — particularly if there are successive disasters.  But such an application of forces might indeed be godlike, perhaps beyond the powers of any potential 5GWarrior organization (especially if the target is a highly developed, resilient target.)

Whispers in the Ear: 5GW Epiphanies

In considering unnatural natural disasters, my primary focus, though unstated, was a consideration of the use of physical force: how could a 5GWarrior utilize physics to goad a target down a path, confuse a target, and ultimately create effects beneficial to the SecretWarrior’s war on its target.  But each of the methods mentioned or implied has a weakness, since the creation of unnatural natural disasters, the application of terrorist acts, etc., are traceable.  Such acts have effects which are not only obvious — thus, may raise suspicion — but because they rely on the physical world, they allow the target to piece together physical evidence and, thus, they allow the target to build a clearer picture of the cause.  They allow the target to observe what is real even though a target may fail to do so and therefore may fail to properly piece together the physical patterns.

Framing a patsy or proxy may serve to confuse the target for a time; it might be an effective tactic, leading to a false puzzle as pieces of physical evidence are joined; but as already implied, the 5GWarrior may not want to depend so much on a patsy’s complicity — and, physical evidence never lies, though a victim might fail to hear the truth.

How does a 5GW force initiate activity; or, put another way, how does a 5GW force influence its targets to take the steps toward self-destruction?  One way may be through some application of physical force, but a direct application risks discovery.  Framing a patsy risks discovery.  What if, however, another organization committed the act?  What if al Qaeda or some domestic terrorist organization could create the disaster the 5GWarrior wants to inflict (as a goad) on the target?  But then, how do you get that organization to do it?

One way might be a cross-framing, which is an old method: simultaneously commit acts against two parties who already hate each other, but make it look to each of them as if the other did it.  Done well, such a framing — or, multiple framings in quick succession — could lead to the escalation of conflict between the two parties, and once the conflict reaches a certain tempo, the original acts are nearly forgotten.  Cross-framing is a risky enterprise, however, because unless conflict escalates at a very quick rate, the target of 5GW may have time to observe the physical evidence of the terrorist acts.  For instance, 9/11 has been observed and studied, over and over, in the current GWoT; if al Qaeda had been framed — a favorite conspiracy theory — chances are good that we would have discovered this fact and tracked the evidence back to the actual perpetrators.  At the very least, we would be looking for those perpetrators.

What things are hardest to track? Answer: memes.

I think that it may only be fitting for 5GW to derive its difference, its evolutionary superiority, from the greater role of meme transference in our modern world; and that, in general, successive generations of war have developed as technologies and societies developed.  The quick media cycle has observable effects on policy and decision-making, and 5GWarriors will make full use of media.

Dan tdaxp, quoting a song by VNV Nation:

“Soundless:

I’m saying nothing for the good of myself
but I’m still talking and you’re not listening”

Why are you not listening?  You are not listening, because you are already deciding, adding your voice to the chatter (if only mentally.)  Listening is a different function than hearing.  The 5GWarrior may still be talking, you may be hearing, but you are not listening.  Why?  Because you already agree or disagree with what is being said — I’m saying nothing for the good of myself.  The 5GWarrior is speaking so that you have an opportunity to agree or disagree; he is giving you the opportunity to take a position and, thus, is making you free.

In Effectors, I contemplated on one nature of the SecretWarrior: The SecretWarrior as Benefactor:

No society is 100% homogenous, but the most influential members of the society (whether the society is a small group or a nation) are those who can promise the most benefit to the other members of society, whether the benefit is material in nature or psychological or social. To give an example: should a string of natural and not-so-natural disasters occur, those leaders, thinkers, and other members of a society who are able to mitigate or nullify the effects of those disasters are most likely to have the freest reins. They are certainly more likely to avoid suspicion — if, and only if, their efforts actually seem to lead, and ultimately do lead, to benefits.

A couple of successive comments on the Coming Anarchy thread point in a similar direction:

arherring said:

I agree that 5GW will be a networked organization, but I think the main weapon it will wield will be the idea of connectivity. I imagine it to be sort of viral, with each person in the organization being a vector to spread the idea be they a soldier, a diplomat, an engineer, or a relief worker.

John Robb said:

I’d like to offer an alternative to the above. What if GG’s ignore the decision making of the government entirely (their entire OODA loop) and focus directly on the population/economy. This is the equivalent of turning the government’s decision making loop into a tire in mud. You can work perfectly, but it can’t get any traction.

A 5GWarrior may indeed focus on the population and may suggest methods of connecting, by offering new methods to arouse agreement or disagreement — depending on the effect he wants.  How direct will the offering be?  We certainly cannot discount the possibility of a messianic politician, celebrity, or religious figure for a 5GWarrior — nor, some powerful celebrity scoundrel, who offers the negative to reinforce our positive.  But there may be other ways to do it:  a new book is published, a new movie made, a new pop song is created, which strikes the right chord and influences large numbers of people; then, the SecretWarrior is not seen, because that actor is thought to be some member of the intelligentsia or is an artiste just doing his thing, and the new idea introduced is just “an idea whose time has come.”

The 5GWarrior may operate in relative isolation, as well, as some adviser to a politician or business mogul, as a ghost writer, or as a friend or inspiration to an artist, who whispers in the ear of (media) power. This may be the most effective form.  Certainly, this will be the least traceable form.  He might be the friend of the adviser; there could be networks spanning across many fields.

Thinking of John Robb’s implication in Emergent Intelligence (but also my follow-up conceptualization) that individual members of an emergent system may not even know they are members of that system — they are focused on local effects and activities, but their activities lead to the large-scale emergence — leads me to wonder if whispers in the ear might be tracked back to 5GW operatives by individuals. Those who have heard the whispers may later be able to know and remember who whispered, but because they are not fully aware of the total emergence in advance, they can’t put 2 and 2 together until it’s much too late to do any good.  But on the other hand…

…the 5GW network will use physical force in a way that is not traceable to the 5GW network, because others will choose to be the actors.  The patsies have chosen to be patsies, but they think they are doing their own work.  What happens when you introduce the idea of “a clash of civilizations,” in the right way to the right people?  For instance.  [Not that this is actually what happened.]  So this 5GW theory is not mere politics, diplomacy, business, or punditry.  Actual force, and particularly the reaction to force, are methods utilized by 5GW actors.

The 5GW force, in order to be effective, will look for emergence in advance, and will create the memes that will lead to the desired emergence.  “Emergence in advance” is potential, unformed, no-form.   In order to be effective, the 5GW force will highlight inequalities and insufficiencies which are already present although perhaps largely ignored; they will be market creators:

A more powerful reason that innovation is related to market shaping goes back to the military idea of the initiative. Companies take the initiative in the marketplace by offering a stream of new products and services. Where do new products and services come from? The only answer possible, discounting elves and gamma rays, is through the initiative of the people who work for and with the organization. A market creator uses the almost symbiotic relationship all of its people have with its customers to generate ideas for new features or capabilities or whatever. Stalk and Hout were dead on, when in the middle of describing how agile companies become entwined with their customers, they observed that “Sometimes it’s difficult to know who’s leading whom.” [ed. — emphasis added.]

[Chet Richards, Riding the Tiger]

The Tao also describes the phenomenon, when describing the best leaders: 

Hesitant, he does not utter words lightly.
When his task is accomplished and his work done
The people all say, ‘It happened to us naturally.’

[last lines of #17, cited in Effectors]

Dan tdaxp, quoting himself in an earlier entry:

Formless:

In contrast to “hearts and minds,” 5GW focuses on the enemy’s “fingertips and gut.” “Fingertip feeling,” what the Germans called fingerspitzengefuhl, is the ability to know without thinking. This is what Americans call “gut feeling.” To a certain extent, it means a commander trusting his intuition. It is critical in 5GW because fingertip feelings, or “hunches,” will be the only way for the enemy to sense the fighter.

I think, however, that the target will not sense the fighter for a slightly different reason.  The 5GWarrior does not subvert fingertip-feeling or confuse it.  He utilizes it.  The target has a true fingertip-feeling, but he is put in the position of having that particular hunch by the 5GWarrior.  Part of the positioning is the introduction of data which then causes a “click” in the psyche of the target.  The data can be a meme, and so influence rather directly; or, the data can be a physical manifestation of power created by the person who has been influenced by a meme.   Such data can play into ignorances, biases, and bigotries, much in the same way that the introduction of a new product on the market can play into insecurities, fetishes, and hungers.  Hunches are sometimes proved wrong — too late.  (So when I say, true fingertip-feeling, I’m relying on this aspect of hunches.)  In order to influence the largest number of people however, the data must be true if partial.  Its partiality may serve to confuse in a larger system, and debate may then paralyze the target; but it is certainly true from some perspective, or the debate would be resolved rather quickly.  Ideology and religion are powerful tools of the 5GWarrior, but the trappings of science may also serve the fighter. Once these things have “taken hold” of a society, tracing them back to the origin is nearly impossible.

So, then, how could a hidden 5GW force defeat a fuzzy 4GW force?  Influence it to fight another force, one it already despises  — and, preferably, one it cannot defeat.  Or, introduce dispute within it, of the sort that would paralyze its activities, create massive amounts of in-fighting.  Or, befriend it; give it real accomplishments (perhaps by surreptitiously influencing other parties who can give them these) which, nonetheless, lead to final outcomes quite different than it originally intended. Because a 4GW force tends to be decentralized, dependent on local actors and local activities, focus on influencing them. Do not try to destroy the 4GW force; focus on changing it.

5GW: No Gods, but Men.  And Women.  And Others.

Structure is so intimately bound up with strategy that it is difficult to imagine how one could make any lasting change in an organization’s behavior without first making equally profound changes in its systems.

[Chet Richards, Riding the Tiger]

I think that, unlike 4GW networks, 5GW networks will not tend toward emergence but will consciously utilize emergence.  They will not focus on local activity and a repetition of tactics on local scales hoping for an emergence of Victory!, nor will the masterminds simply deliver grand objectives to focus their low-level warriors on those local tasks.  Because the direct application of force will rarely be a tactic used by 5GW operatives and psychological manipulation will be a primary role, each operative will be required to be a mastermind of sorts.  Secrecy will require less communication with the actual mastermind if such a person exists, although networks of communication might be established between operatives which will be the typical communications networks for the positions they have secured.  If low-level operatives are utilized, they will not realize they are being utilized, or at the very least they will not be aware of the 5GW organization.

Similarly, close-knit cells may or may not exist in 5GW networks, since quite possibly each 5GW operative will be assigned one person to influence, and operatives may be spread far apart.  Such cells may form eventually as centers of power are created; but as this occurs, the cells will become dormant for a time or at least the operatives within them will be much less active.  (If they act, they risk the discovery of the entire network.)  Whatever nodes are created, in the form of close-knit cells, may be abandoned after a certain objective is achieved; i.e., these nodes may be receptors of information which will be used by other operatives in other places.  Operatives in these cells will no longer work on manipulation, but will provide the information for those in other places who do manipulate.  However, individual operatives may be assigned to individual targets within a single organization to better gain influence within that organization — they are essentially operating alone, however, on individual targets.  (Each strategy of manipulation is highly dependent on the character, intelligence, and history of the target.)

Unlike 4GW networks and the organizations of other types of military organizations, 5GWarriors will utilize 4GW, 3GW, etc., forces to accomplish their goals, as well as financial organizations, NGO’s, artists, journalists and celebrities.  This might not necessarily be an attempt at destruction of any of these other entities, since the 5GW network might actually benefit from the ascension of another force.

The strategy of a 5GW force, in utilizing emergence, is the shaping of new paradigms which will shape the geo-economic-social-political framework.  The only theater of operation is global; and the only goal is global domination.  But most people will not realize that they have been dominated.