On China and Hard/Soft Power

An interesting cross-view of China’s increasing global influence can be found at The Council on Foreign Relations:  “China’s Soft Seduction.”  Much of the information is not new, although perhaps more focus on individual perspectives may be occurring.  Interestingly, the article’s author, Esther Pan, had this to say about China’s role in Latin America:

And this Congressional Research Service report (PDF) details China’s growing investments in Latin America, where many governments have been receptive to the Chinese message that bringing millions out of poverty is the best example of respecting human rights.

I have addressed the Chinese involvement in Latin America a few times.  Most recently, a thought experiment inaugurated by Purpleslog, concerning a possible 5GW-style effort by Hugo Chavez and others in the immigration protests, led me to offer an actor-behind-the-actor hypothesis to the thought experiment: China.  So of course, the next question in the thought experiment would be, How has China’s message in Latin America been filtered into action by Chavez and Morales and Castro?

I read the article only a few hours after reading the Pentagon’s recent news release on China’s modernization of its military, with its suggestion that within China, debate may be occurring concerning China’s previous “no first use” rule on using nuclear weapons.  (One wonders if recent rumors of the U.S.’s policy on nuclear weapons, vis-a-vis a potential strike on Iran, have influenced the debate in China.)  The Pentagon story also makes much of another Chinese maxim first put forth by Deng Xiaoping and still being repeated (apparently) by senior Chinese analysts: “Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.”

Naturally, all of those dicta would support a 5GW mentality…

Displaying the Pentagon’s tendency to fight the last war, Peter Rodman, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, has only focused on one phrase in the maxim for this news report:

“The phrase that strikes me, of course, is ‘hide our capacities and bide our time.’ I think this encapsulates what’s China’s strategy is. They are very patient,” Rodman said.

Of course, China’s modernization of its forces should not be ignored — what bits the Pentagon is able to determine, that is, like anti-satellite and long-range ballistic missile capabilities — but I think that the entire maxim should be taken together.  Plus, the news report also stresses the fact that the Pentagon is not going to “overestimate” China’s capabilities (while also not underestimating capabilities.)  This alone should be a pointer that China’s progress might promote, at present, greater efforts within China to understand asymmetric warfare.