Dreaming 5GW

“There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We can reduce the focus to a soft blur, or sharpen it to crystal clarity. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to… The Outer Limits.”

The Outer Limits— Opening narration – The Control Voice – 1960s

In a previous post I set down a list of topics that I wished to explore in greater detail. One in particular, the ability (requirement?) of a 5GW organization to work as horizontally as possible, has risen to the top of the list mostly because of how horizontally or vertically a 5GW organization operates has a direct bearing on many of the other listed topics. I also give a great deal of credit to Dan TDAXP who has some very interesting comments on the above post and who, I think, has made a very important contribution to the generational warfare model with his post “Making a Science of the Generations of War.”

“This can be accomplished by defining “generation,” or even better its symbol “G,” as a scale. It seems to be that “G” measures the kinetic intensity of conflict, which every new G being approximately 20 times less intense than the one below it.

This holds up under a first analysis. Pre-Modern Warfare (the Zeroth Generation of Modern Warfare, “0GW,” about 0Gs) is unremittingly genocidal. If the AD 1900s had the same fatality-from-war rate as the 6000s BC, we should have seen something like two billion war deaths. We might say that form the dawn of man to the dawn of agriculture war meant from measuring around 0.1 Gs on the kinetic intensity scale to .9 Gs.

Or think of it another way: 0G Warfare focuses on ending an enemy’s ability to fight by killing their men. By the time we get to 4G Warfare almost none of the battle is in the field, but in the mind’s of men who will live regardless. This 5GW we talk of seems to be even more mental and less physical, seeking to leave the men, material, and even will of the enemy essentially unchanged”
TDAXP

This is an incredibly interesting consideration that I hope he continues to explore.

The way I see 5GW developing, what makes it a new generation of warfare, is its effecting change through the context of systemic manipulation. Mostly this has been expressed as creating system perturbations in order to change or create rule-sets.

Fifth Generation Warfare (5GW): an emergent theory of warfare premised upon influencing change through manipulation of multiple systemic levels. (Arherring 11/5/06)

It is in this working definition and in Dan TDAXP’s “G” theory that I see an immediate application that answers, or at least sheds some light on my question of horizontal action by a 5GW organization. I will sum it up like this:

The lower the “G” the more vertical, kinetic or direct the action. The higher the “G” the more horizontal, indirect and non-kinetic, the action.

It is from this that how vertically or horizontally a 5GW organization acts has a great deal of bearing on the size and shape of the organization.

The Vertical:

As Global Guerilla enthusiasts are quick to point out, it is much easier to destroy (or threaten to destroy) than it is to build, and I think that is generally true. It stands to reason that a 5GW attack with a lower “G” generally requires a smaller more simple organization, even shrinking down to the size of an individual with a goal. In compensation for its size, its methods of gathering and disseminating information may need to be increasingly open-sourced. This effective ‘sub-contracting’ of knowledge, resources and abilities, carries an inherent risk of discovery and disruption. Its actions, being more often larger in scale and more often kinetic, are also harder to keep secret in their source, and harder to influence after the attack has been launched. The trade off is that the more vertical 5GW organization’s actions will likely require less lead time for preparation and events outside the 5GW organization’s control are less likely to make actions less effective.

The Horizontal:

A more horizontal approach, denoted by a higher “G”, generally requires a larger, or at least more complex and / or resource rich, organization in order to effect change in as many diverse ways as possible. Because the horizontal approach has the potential to include an integral diversity of knowledge and information, this organization can be more closed source. Being more horizontal in scope and spreading its smaller attacks out over a larger area of more diverse domains of action, this type of 5GW may have a higher level of inherent secrecy after attacks have been initiated (If nobody knows anything is happening, they won’t be looking for a culprit.). A longer period of preparation will also make the more subtle actions of the horizontal 5GW organization possible and more synergistic in effect. After operations have been initiated the longer preparatory time may also allow the more horizontal 5GW organization to guide and adjust the effects of its actions. There is a possible disadvantage in that when the more horizontal 5GW group is organizing and preparing, outside events may cause it plans, or even its goal, to become irrelevant.

So, is there a requirement for a 5GW organization to work as horizontally as possible?

My answer is: Yes, 5GW will be at its best when working as horizontally as possible.

Also, should an organization plan for actions lower in “G” (higher in direct kinetic activity) it may be more effective to use 4GW or 3GW paradigms which are optimized for a more kinetic approach than 5GW is emerging to embody. In the end, based on its goal, its personnel and its resources, the 5GW actor will have to find a balance of vertical and horizontal actions.

Filed in The Vault and tagged Horizontal Conflict, Kinetics, Vertical and Horizontal Conflict, xGW