Dreaming 5GW

Updated: With Graphic by Curtis Weeks

Re-Updated: to give credit where credit is due -hat tip to TDAXP-

While searching the internet for others who are working on 5GW or its equivalent, I ran across an article on Phil Jones’s ThoughtStorms wiki where he was plucking interesting bits and phrases from Dan TDAXP’s Dreaming 5th Generation War.

“5th Generation Wars will be created with Waterfall Development? We can see what 5GWs will be like by looking at what Waterfall Development is like:

· Requirements must be known a long time before fighting begins
· Requirements will be rigid and non-adaptable
· Long Time between proposal and victory “

While at the time I didn’t know what Waterfall Development meant in this context the Wikipedia soon enlightened me.

“The waterfall model is a sequentialsoftware development model (a process for the creation of software) in which development is seen as flowing steadily downwards (like a waterfall) through the phases of requirements analysis, design, implementation, testing (validation), integration, and maintenance.”

Wikipedia, Waterfall Development

What does this mean for 5GW theory? Well, along with its sister Interative Design (an article for another day), this provides a framework by which 5GW may be organized and executed.

In all fairness, and just so somebody won’t immediately point it out to me, sequential design models like Waterfall don’t work for software design. I know this. It features prominently in all of the research I have done on the topic. I’m not interested in software design so I’m going to see what happens when Waterfall is applied to 5GW.

Since in the waterfall model each step is a sequential progression I will follow the phases of the original model as I discuss its 5GW utility.

Requirements Specification:

This is the phase of Waterfall that trips up software design. If your requirements (or goals) are possibly going to change or are too broad to be approached in one project then Waterfall is not for you. You will need to look into an Iterative design model. If, however, your goal is able to be set in stone and is of a scope or timeframe that it can and should be attacked all at once (such as the outcome of an election) then the Waterfall model certainly could act as a framework.

Design:

This is where the imagination and vision get to run wild as a blueprint for the 5GW campaign is created. As 5GW seeks to manipulate as many domains as possible any avenue of influence can, and should, be considered for its ability to apply leverage. With all of the planning up front in this manner the 5GW organization also has the ability to keep the 5GW campaign known to a very small number of people. This should be recognized as a very important security consideration.

Construction:

The organization itself is now created to implement the blueprint laid down in the design phase. Since all of the planning is done before this phase those who actually carry out the design may have no idea what the overall goal of the 5GW campaign is, merely their small part. This allows proxies and contractors outside of the 5GW organization to be used with a reduction in the risk of discovery of intent.

Integration:

In the software world this would be where all of the individual modules of a project would be combined together. As far as 5GW is concerned I see this as the phase where the projected effects of the operations in each of the domains are fine tuned to ensure that the effects become synergistic. Working over multiple domains this could potentially be one of the most important phases of the model for 5GW.

Testing and Debugging (a.k.a. Verification):

When considering how each of the phases would apply to 5GW this is the one that gave me the most trouble. I do, however, see a certain utility is setting an initial goal short of the ultimate goal for the 5GW campaign to attempt to attain so that its effects can be judged. This could also be a good indicator of the ultimate success of the campaign.

Installation:

Once the campaign is fully planned, implemented and fine-tuned its operations go forward in earnest.

Maintenance:

This would be the follow-up after the goal has either been reached or is determined to not be able to be reached (such as the election is over). In a 5GW context this could be reinforcing success by raising a new organization in order to maintain and capitalize on the newly created situation. It could also mean reconfiguring the 5GW organization in order to be ready for the next project. In the event of failure (or perhaps success?) it would also be during this phase that bridges are burned and links dissolved so that the 5GW organization fades from view.

In summary, given a limited goal with a limited, and concrete, set of requirements the Waterfall model of design looks to have a great deal of utility for the organization and design of a 5GW campaign. It offers advantages in secrecy and with its planning done before operations commence it has the ability to fine-tune its focus to limit distraction or ‘mission creep’. It does have the drawback of being inflexible and may lack the ability to opportunistically respond to changing events that have not been planned for.

Filed in The Vault and tagged 5GW Operationalization, Laying the Foundations, Secrecy, Waterfall Design