Winning a Hockey 5GW

This is brilliant! I agree that this is an example of 5GW, or at least proto-5GW and a great example of a system perturbation without the actual destruction of the system in question. I think the main problem with the end result from the 5GW perspective is that the organization was too distributed and was unable to respond to the NHL’s couterstrokes quickly enough. My question is this;

What happens next year during the All-Star balloting?

Welcome to the 5GW conversation Catholicgauze!

I like this exploration of a campaign to which we can apply the concepts related to 5GW. One thing I note is that secrecy plays no part in this effort, which is a question I’ve been holding about the definition of 5GW.

Although it seems that secrecy will be important in many campaigns, I don’t think it is a necessary guideline when considering a definition. Here’s an interesting possibility though: What if this were a campaign organized by a company who sponsors this athlete (the goal being to raise his profile and increase the value of their investment)? That would be where secrecy would come into play.

Examining possibilities, one could even go further than that: What if there was another organization that had somehow influenced the athlete’s sponsor to undertake this campaign in order to raise his profile and earning power because they have some compromising information on him, and if he has more money, he can be blackmailed for a larger amount. Of course that is highly unlikely in this case, just a far out example of the type of things we can consider in these explorations.

RyanLuke,

The turn to conspiracy theory is something I have always wondered would happen.

As to secrecy, I think this is one of the ways this campaign was not 5GW. The NHL was aware of the campaign to have Fitzpatrick included on the All-Star team and as a consequence the NHL was able to counter the 5GW effectors manipulation. What if the campaign had maintained secrecy? Or, to add this wrinkle, what if the Fitzpatrick votes were obscured by a more overt campaign to elect another player keepeing the NHL attention in one place while Fitzpatrick’s selection was lost in the background.

I think that the definition of 5GW would be more useful if it focused on whole systems manipulation and affecting environmental shifts, rather than on secrecy.

Secrecy is a tactic for creating these affects, not a necessity.

I’ve never thought that secrecy was the focus, although I do think it will be a necessity.

But the question arises, What must be secret? , rather than, Must secrecy be comprehensive? Then take a look at what’s being said in the post about each group: what is known and what is not.

I have some problems with some things said in the post. E.g.,

when the campaign moved past its organizer/leader and into leaderless aggression or fifth generation warfare (5GW)

I don’t like equating ‘leaderless aggression’ with 5GW; that seems like loose thinking, since leaderless aggression can occur outside the realm of 5GW. For instance, mobs. Plus, you’ll get confusion over Global Guerrilla theory and 5GW theory.

Similarly,

This battle between a leaderless movement and the National Hockey League is a great example of 5GW.

is problematic. Similar to GG theory, this statement assumes a singular movement has formed in the soup of an open-source environment — diverse insurgent groups are labeled under the name ‘Global Guerrillas’ — but (1) unlike both GG theory and 5GW theory, the ‘movement’ is assumed to have been motivated toward achieving a commonly held, conscious goal and (2) unlike 5GW theory the goal is largely thought to have been achievable by focusing only upon one domain: the NHL, or the voting process, via media. I.e., although various tactics and operations may have originated diversely and occurred in diverse locations, they’re all directed at a common focal point. This focus is not secret for either side of the so-called ‘battle.’ While it’s true that others not part of that assumed ‘leaderless movement’ are not similarly motivated nor similarly focusing their efforts — the news reports, perhaps — and may have affected the overall outcome (not necessarily to the benefit of the ‘leaderless movement’) I do not see from this post how the existence of ‘viral memes’ (or call them what you will) in this confrontation distinguishes the occurrences from what happens in 4GW. Look at the MSM’s handling of anything, for that matter, from fads in fashion to the war in Iraq. Or look at bin Laden’s efforts to gain the help of Islamist supporters, or even moderate Muslims, by using the media to build support for a caliphate or the destruction of the West.

In fact, the so-called ‘leaderless movement’ seems to have operated as 4GW, with perhaps some aspects of 3GW such as maneuverability —

The script allowed browsers to continually submit votes, there are no limits on how many times one could vote, for Fitzpatrick. With this the NHL decided to act but only half-heartedly. Minor increases in ballot security were quickly countered by Vote-O-Matic makers.

Now, as for what the NHL did, or is assumed to have done…A recent story on the British version of the reality-t.v. program Big Brother has come to mind. After being charged with airing an inflammatory racist confrontation, the producers decided to change the rules by telling the participants what was happening in the outside world and getting them to try to mitigate the fallout. Imagine if American Idol producers were thought to have altered the rules by eliminating some votes! (Or if U.S. armed forces were thought to alter the rules of so-called civilized warfare by snapping photos of inmates forced to engage in lewd conduct!) And so I wonder what the fallout from the NHL response will be. This confrontation seems to have been altogether a case of a hierarchical organization being attacked by a sub-5GW effort and responding as hierarchical organizations often do when they wish to control events; it’s their organization, and therefore their rules, and those who create the rules sometimes feel empowered to change them at will without offering explanations. Fortunately for them, however, hockey purists outside the organization may appreciate those rules, so the NHL might have allies they can call upon — should the ‘battle’ be only a prelude to a longer-lasting war.

If it was all a half-hearted effort or ‘gimmick war’ after all, a joke in fact although taken to extremes… Why are we looking at it, except for clues of what not to do? Ah, yes… Since 5GWarriors might use other forces, 3GW and 4GW forces, conflicts like this might serve as pointers for understanding how those trapped in the past can be influenced to change the environment willfully. So I do think that some of the extended conspiracy theories offered in comments here are quite interesting.

The final bold remarks about changing the rules remind me of Dan’s questions concerning normative theory, btw.

RyanLuke,

As a side note I have been working on definitions of 5GW and until a suggestion by Dan TDAXP in the most recent version secrecy has played virtually no part in the definition. System manipulation (or actor manipulation), on the other hand has always taken the center stage.

I think this shows proto-5GW markings, specifically from the standpoint of creating a goal and then attacking the system to cause the system itself to accomplish the goal. The NHL wasn’t the target of the effector. The target was the All-Star voter who acted as a proxy. This I see as a 5GWish attack through the ‘social’ domain.

Secrecy is only important as you could expect a 5GW force to be 20 times smaller than a 4GW force, which is about 20 times smaller than a 3GW force, etc. Presumably, if you are spotted, you are easy enough to destroy.

Dan,

I think that secrecy plays an important additional role: Separating the message from the messenger. This means both, (1) not allowing the message to become corrupted by considerations of the messenger’s motives and character and apparent connections, and (2) enabling the adoption of the message(s) by those ‘hands in the field’ who will believe they’ve come to understandings under their own free will through the virtue of their own thought processes.

As a fillip…Hmmm, I wrote a post linking other posts related to the subject of secrecy but deleted it from the MT system when I realized I needed to give the subject a little more thought (it remains, however, on the server), and have commented at Opposed Systems Design on the subject as well; but with the recent consideration of GG and events in Iraq on tdaxp…a twist on the consideration of secrecy has come to mind: That where previously 4GW forces would claim responsibility for their actions, attempting to build up impressions of themselves while attacking an enemy’s self-justifications, we are seeing, more and more, terrorist actions which are not claimed. These still seem relatively 4GW, since they are merely reinforcements of memes which have already been established and the players are already ‘seen’ in the abstract (Shia, Sunni) — however, to the degree that AQ-in-Iraq may be pulling strings (potentially on either side of that apparent dichotomy?), we may be seeing a proto-5GW emergence in a ‘field of static.’