Dreaming 5GW

“The empires of the future are the empires of the mind.”

In general, the Winston Churchill quote is auspicious for 5GW dreaming.  Churchill’s words alone would sum up the theory of 5GW that I have presented on D5GW, or at least the major thrust of that theory.  Whether speaking of OODA loops, or of complex abstractions like patriotism or loyalty and fidelity, or of how 5GW might be operationalized or defined, I have tended to put much weight behind the concept that shaping the minds of individuals will play the most significant role in 5GW conflicts.  I base this assumption on many factors, but primarily upon:

• The complexity of real globalization.
• The interconnectivity and inter-operability produced by advancing technology.
• Human nature, individual and social, private and public.
• The observation that 4GW depends greatly upon attacks on cognition, already, and that broadcast media will continue to play a major role in future conflict.
• The assumption that chaos — chaotic interactions — cannot increase perpetually without social order being reestablished or the human race ceasing to exist.

I have hit these topics in various ways in various places already.  To sum up:

Increasingly rapid advancement of technology and increasing levels and varieties of interaction in a globalizing world will make vertical establishment of a particular order relatively impossible — relative to the efficacy of similar methods used in the past — and thus chaos which would be resolved into a beneficial and desirable order will necessarily be resolved at the root level, i.e., at the level of the individual.  Guide the most individuals, and you will have the most influence in shaping the system — if, that is, you guide them well.

I don’t intend for that summary to be definitive, but only a limited guide to my thinking!

However, variant concepts for the fifth generation of warfare exist, some perhaps on this blog!  On D5GW, some disagreement appears to occur when discussing the operationalization of 5GW:  I with my head in abstractions continue to deal in broad frameworks and concepts related mostly to human cognition and ideology, and those who want the nuts & bolts consider more fully — or at least, more often — how 5GW might play out in the mundane, mud and blood environment.  Off Dreaming 5GW, concepts for the fifth generation of warfare range further afield:

• John Robb has his theory of 5GW, which is quite “mud and blood” — that is, focuses on how conflict will play out on the street level, neighborhood level, and, more distantly (or vaguely, perhaps?) on the global level, in a very kinetic way.  I have criticized his theory before here and here; however, one must admit that the future conflict he describes has a tint of indirection permeating it, given how systempunkt attacks are described as causing more permanent (and influential!) damage far from them.


• RevG has a blog, Christian Soldiers, devoted almost entirely to the idea of 5GW  — but just try locking down a description or concept of fifth generation warfare by reading the blog!  His theory seems more abstract than mine, even, since he delves into spirituality and spiritual issues almost exclusively, especially lately.  However, he does consider the roles that the disaffected techno-intelligentsia of the future might play in a 5GW scenario.
  


• Fix4RSO has been developing a concept of 5GW that is very technology-oriented while also acknowledging the large role that media will play.


• Thomas P.M. Barnett has given a personal dream of 5GW that appears very similar to what we discuss on D5GW — but is maddeningly vague.  I.e., from other references to 5GW on his blog, one might say that Barnett believes in a multi-directional, multi-pronged 5GW, for shaping the activities of so many individuals by influencing them at the ground level; but these efforts will still be initiated primarily by states and corporations.  Not that I’m arguing against that possibility, but only that his concept of 5GW appears to eliminate the need for clandestine operation and a limited core of individual 5GWarriors so often discussed on D5GW.

Others have written of fifth generation warfare on the Blogosphere and elsewhere; this is only a representative list of some of the most divergent conceptualizations that I have read and may be archetypal for understanding the broad-ranging discussion of 5GW.  For instance, the Enigma Foundry took John Robb’s concept and ran with it, while somewhat adding a twist.

I took EF’s consideration of Churchill’s statement, and am now running with it.  The quote I mean.  A search of the quotation via Google will show it has been used quite often  to address issues relating to:  education, biotech, business, politics.  The FBI even includes it in a list of quotations about the future, for its Futures Working Group area of their website exploring the shape of future policing.

All the theories of 5GW I have read, as well as theories relating to technology, education, government, and business, must rely upon one reality:  how people think/believe will influence how they operate in the future.  Divergent theories related to any human enterprise often have different assumptions about how we as individuals and as members of networks or societies view our world, interpret that world, and act in that world in accordance with what we observe and have observed.

If we look at the competing theories of 5GW, we might see which styles of observation still linger in the world.  We might wonder how others, who have never heard of 5GW, will nonetheless be motivated to act in ways addressed by each of the theories of 5GW (or any other theories of warfare.)

If future empires are to manifest, they will manifest when a sufficiently large number of people join an ‘empire of mind.’  A manner of thinking produces a corresponding manner of doing.  If any one ‘5GW’ becomes the reality, it will be because most people involved in conflict buy into that theory — for instance, we might not be far wrong to assume that 4GW exists because a sufficient number of people think and operate in a 4GW manner.  What will move them out of that habit of thought?

Filed in The Vault and tagged 4GW, John Robb