On Future Superpower

My high school buddy and science fiction writer Raymund Eich has begun a series of posts which will explore the requirements placed upon science fiction writing by potential future geopolitical realities:

Anyone writing science fiction set in the next century has to think about three questions in international politics.

• Will China become a superpower or not?
• Will India become a superpower or not?
• Will the United States remain a superpower or not?

[“Eight Futures 1”, The Transhuman Comedy]

Part one opens with these questions.  In part two of the series, Raymund responded to a comment I left in part one by offering a working definition of “superpower”:

A superpower is an organization that drives interpolity relations in the medium term (decades) and leaves a legacy across polities in the long term (decades to centuries).

[“Eight Futures 2”, The Transhuman Comedy]

The definition is broad enough to be interesting and relevant to the subject of 5GW; Raymund explains the definition further in the post.

Where Raymund adds an interesting twist to 5GW theory is in the conclusion to part two.  He introduces a consideration of future technology and the peculiar constraints and limitations which such otherwise empowering technology will have on the development of “superpowers,” but without ruling out the potential for superpowers to exist in a 5GW world:

What will “superpower” mean in the future? Accepting arguendo Curtis’s view that 5GW is inevitable—a view consonant with both my reading of Van Creveld and my sfnal thoughts on molecular manufacturing, cheap simple robotics, and distributed emergent computing—the time will come when no state has the power to police its territory for criminals and rebels. When no state can prevent pirate and terrorist predations. When no state can conquer territory save by nuclear genocide. Yet within these constraints, some states could be superpowers and drive the international agenda, just as ancient rulers could, in one sense, dominate a large chunk of the world while, in an another, being utterly ignorant of the assets and attitudes of their subjects and the capabilities and intentions of their neighbors. For this reason, the term “superpower” has legs left.

Alternatively, could a non-state actor be a superpower? Picture a James Bond supervillian who really can build a moonbase with a giant “laser” capable of destroying a city; or more plausibly, an organized crime gang using molecular manufacturing/robotics/computing to dominate affairs in Third World slums or the communes of an ethnic diaspora. Whether such an organization can drive international affairs for decades is another question, but it’s not automatically ridiculous to ask. I’ll leave the question of whether such an organization would leave any legacy other than “you too can become Keyser Soze/Dr. Evil” to the reader.

I’ll be keeping my eye on this series as it develops!