July 2007 Archives

On Shlok Vaidya's Website (worth adding to your favorite RSS feed if it isn't already), he links to an article on Oil Refinery problems such as:

A third of the country’s 150 refineries have reported disruptions to their operations since the beginning of the year, a record according to analysts.

Then commentator Wolf Pangloss asked:

How do you know all this stuff is just accidental, and thus fixed by simplifying systems, and not the result of someone nefarious doing something nefarious, which would be fixed by complicating and adding redundancy to systems?

My thought is that they didn't know is was accidental. They hope it accidental, and they assume it is.

From a 5GW point of view, who might the benefactors from this systematic disruption - who might be behind it if this isn't accidental?

  • Global Guerrillas testing out techniques, or slowly ramping up?
  • American citizens concerned about the sorry state of domestic security and infrastructure protection trying to get the State to react a certain way?
  • Corporate interests and/or American citizens who want reduce Federal dis-incentives for increasing domestic refinery capacity?

Any other ideas?

A Big Welcome

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I would like to extend a BIG welcome to our newest contributor to Dreaming 5GWdeichmans!

Deichmans only recently entered the Blogosphere as a blogger in his own right with Wizards of Oz, but he has been enriching the Blogosphere for some time with his insightful comments and analysis.  Already, Dreaming 5GW has benefited from his attention, whether through comments left on the Barnettian Paradox or on Puppeteers and OODA loops, on Shadow Governments or The Military - Industrial - SysAdmin - Complex.


Dan tdaxp recently described deichmans as "an amazingly smart guy" and a friend to tdaxp.  He has been a friend to many bloggers, and I expect that circle of friends will only grow.  I'm glad to have deichmans as a contributing member of D5GW. The theory of fifth generation warfare has gained a unique and intelligent new voice.

Over at Phatic Communion, Arherring has suggested something called "5GW analysis paralysis":

In other words, what is the effect of the knowledge that you have an opponent merely capable of 5GW campaigns? Given the inherent secrecy of 5GW your opponent has only two real options, (regardless of if you choose the engage in a 5GW campaign or not) he can proceed as if no campaign is ongoing and accept your influence while trying to maintain his objectives, or he can search so obsessively for the 5GW maneuvering against him that he ceases to able to function as a legitimate threat.


I responded with the following.



Or: He can begin to engage his own 5GW plan (if he understands the basic concepts.)

I once mentioned on tdaxp that I thought the only effective defense against 5GW would be another 5GW operation. Dan disagreed. I think that Dan might say that preemptive resilience (institutional, infrastructure, ideological perhaps) would be the first defense and that the secondary defense would be an offense which attempts to "degrade" your 5GW opponent into operating at 4GW or below. I believe the post in question was a consideration of America and federalism; don't remember, just now.

The problem with each of these defenses:


  1. Preemptive resilience: The 5GW attacker works with an iterative process; he's always judging the reality of any present conditions and tweaking his operations. I view 5GW as being the most dynamic of the generations of warfare. Whatever resiliencies you have built will become part of that plan. (Moreover, I wonder if inherent in the idea of resiliency is a dependence not only on that resiliency itself but also on static conditions able to "re-bound" after attacks or changing circumstances. This reminds me of the little quibble I had with DeAngelis once, early on, since resiliency is often thought of in terms of "bouncing/jumping back" into a specific place/condition.)

  2. Degradation of 5GW: While degradation can happen naturally, through the fault of the 5GW planner, forcing a degradation would require that the defender be able to surpass the 5GW. I.e., it would require some type of 6GW operation -- unless, that is, we want to reconsider the generational framework by positing that (x+1)G is not designed to overcome xG, or is not actually able to cause 20-times losses and so forth. A 5GW defense might be able to degrade a 5GW attack; but surely at least an on-par defense would be require for intentional degradation of a 5GW force.




We can put these three possibilities forth, then, for the defender who suspects a 5GW attack is underfoot:

  1. "He can proceed as if no campaign is ongoing and accept your influence while trying to maintain his objectives."


  2. "He can search so obsessively for the 5GW maneuvering against him that he ceases to able to function as a legitimate threat."


  3. He can begin 5GW operations of his own.


Each of these possibilities is interesting.

"B" is the worst operational framework, the worst defense, because, in the first place, the 5GW attacker will devise the attack(s) to be entirely unobservable in themselves (although their effects may be observable); and, secondly, because part of the 5GW plan may well be to have the target react rashly while trying to "see" those maneuvers or to run around with his head cut off, utterly distracted.  The defender's search may be a significant part of the 5GW plan.

"A" is not necessarily bad.  I have said before, and will say again, that not all prawns -- i.e., proxy-pawns -- will be targeted for destruction.  In fact, a kinder, gentler 5GW may have as its goal the improvement of the system for everyone within the system.  If the 5GW maneuvers cannot be seen, acquiescence to them may really be a good thing:  "Let those better operators have their full effect; I, in any case, am obviously outside that decision loop."  I in fact wonder if such acquiescence to being a knowing prawn might persuade the attacker to see you as a valuable asset rather than an intransigent thorn in his side.  However, if the 5GW attacker has planned far worse for the defender, this may not be the best option.

"C" leaves a little more certainty that the defender could come out of the 5GW in a better place than when the war began.  Obviously, we're down to skill-sets here, which will greatly determine which side becomes "victorious."  Ironically, "A" may be a part of "C". Quite possibly, "B" will also occur in "C", in that the defensive 5GW force will need to be able to counter the opponent's 5GW maneuvers and therefore will need to be aware of those maneuvers somewhat.  But generally, I think that much of the observation will be focused on the environmental conditions, the objective reality of the system, rather than on the enemy's OODA although that (and all other OODAs) will also be considered.

Given the success of my Orientation and Action that broke my original "Go Deep" post into manageable chunks, over the next week my post "Dreaming 5th Generation War" (for which this blog is named) will post as a six-part series over at tdaxp.

Hopefully, this will make relevant passages easier to cite in the future, and even inspire some new comments. Stay tuned! Your contributions are appreciated!

Interesting thoughts over at Soob.

Amicable Collisions writes:

...I found certain themes recurring again and again: entrepreneurship, the strategic citizen, updating classical liberalism for the 21st century, developing a 21st century vision for the American Experiment, centralized industrial age institutions vs. decentralized information age institutions, and the whole idea/information/meme/media/psychological-war thing.

The post includes re-posts of 5GW theory thinking and is worth reading (even if the author is backing away from 5GW).

As I commented about his choice of themes:

Those are the kind of stuff I read blogs for.

(Cross-posted at tdaxp as The Generations of War: Not Emerging, But Always Present.)

When did the generations of war was the first 1GW? 2GW? 3GW? 4GW? 5GW? And when will the next generation emerge?

Before the beginning of history. And it never will, because (if it exists) it is already here.

The generations of war do not spontaneously appear in history at some certain date. It is not like reality obeys the dictates of teleological dialectical idealism and that some grand Synthesis can only appear once a Thesis has met its Antithesis. It's like not 5GW can only appear after 4GW has been rigorously described.

Rather, each generation of war is a method, a technology, of enforcing ones will on others. Mao is often described as the Ur-Father of 4GW, but there's a good argument to be made that Jesus and Paul deserve that title, too. I would not be surprised if future examination of ancient Chinese writing reveal 4GW thousands of years ago, either.

n a state-directed 5GW, a state-within blossoms into a state-beyond. During the Cold War, the state-within centered around President Truman blossomed into a state-beyond centered around the Military-Industrial-MILC-Complex (MILC). If, in this Long War, a Military-Industrial-Sysadmin-Complex (MISC) blossoms, will it look similar to the MILC? Will it look like an iron triangle?

Yes.

Human nature does not change. While people vary from time to time and place to place in intelligences, in preferences, in talents, and abilities, one rule up the behavior of all normal-functioning people:

"They love their families more than they love you."

Why do doctors run unnecessary tests? Why do Congressmen love pork? Why do drug dealers distribute low-quality goods? Because each has responsibilities to an in-group (which you are not part of) more pressing than serving you and whatever out-group of which you are a member.

This is why every generation do not "emerge" through the centuries -- because human nature does not "emerge" through the centuries. While different organizations may be more or less likely to employ this or that generation in order to enforce their will, every generational is theoretically employable. Now, a population with low average intelligence and low social complexity may be very unlikely to to employ 5GW, but this is just as true whether that population lives thirty centuries ago or thirty years from now. The Iron Triangle of the Military-Industrial-Complex manipulates actions by altering the environment where love is practiced: the triangle works because on every side, its functioning is determined by its members love for themselves and their families, not their love for some higher ideal.

Wolf Pangloss finds my series Orientation and Action, and adds his thoughts:

In other words, 5th Generation Warfare requires a conspiracy to subvert the formal government with a shadow government.

There has been speculation here and there about what 5GW would look like. Conspiracy theories being popular, there are many imaginary conflicts involving the Illuminati, Priory of Sion, the Templars, the Carbonari, and so on. But there are some widespread real conspiracies too! The Project of the Muslim Brotherhood is one such conspiracy. So to is the substance of Stalin’s attempts, coordinated by the Communist International following Gramsci’s template, to undermine American and British society, using not only Soviet spies like Alger Hiss, Kim Philby and the Rosenbergs but also numerous other informal agents who made it their project to take over the universities, Hollywood, much of popular entertainment, social work, teacher colleges, and newspapers. Even H.G. Wells’ open source conspiracy to establish a one world government, which has led us to the U.N. and E.U. and other well intentioned but fatally flawed projects, is a conspiracy against the individualist ethic at the heart of the American success story.

In the light of this, it seems that we have at least three powerful and well advanced 5GW wars against the United States right now.

(tdaxp's note: This is a cross-post of 'Orientation and Action, Part II: The OODA-PISRR Loop.' That article is one of two sequels for 'Go Deep,' my very first post on 5GW. 'Go Deep' is now split up into Orientation and Action, Introduction: On War Since John Boyd and Orientation and Action, Part I: The OODA Loop. The other sequel to 'Go Deep,' 'Dreaming 5th Generation War,' is the post for which this group blog is named.)

The Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) loop of John Boyd is not only a model of human cognition.


It is also useful in aligning the generations of modern war within the framework of human cognition

Likewise, the broader Observe-Orient-Decide-Act/Penetrate-Isolate-Subvert-Reorient-Reharmonize Social loop is not only a model of social cognition

ooda_pisrr_09
It is also useful in aligning the kinetic intensity within the framework of social cognition
waveform_one

Both of these findings can be synthesized by viewing the generations of modern war within the framework of social cognition.

Consider that the second generation of modern war (2GW), based on concentrate of firepower, is the strong-suit of the state in war. Likewise, consider that the fourth generation of modern war (4GW), based on idelogical coherency, is the strong-suit of the insurgent in war.

From this we can place the third generatin of modern war (3GW), based on mobility, in between the state's and the insurgent's spheres of influence.

And this makes sense. In Patterns of Conflict, John Boyd describes maneuver warfare as "blitz/guerilla."

(One might just as easily as say "Global Guerrilla / Panzer General")

There are two remaining generations of modern war, and both fall outside the realms of the state and non-state. The first generation (1GW), built on total mobilization, was designed for states able to conscript a large fraction of the male population but unable to communicate effectively enough to effective combine firepower. Thus we place 1GW to the left of 2GW, as belonging to an actor which we would describe as a state... almost. (Compare the workings of Napoleonic France to that of a modern state to see how a 1G "state" falls short.)

Likewise, place the fifth generation of modern warfare (5GW) to the right of 4GW. 5GW is the domain of non-states... almost. When a 5GW is used by a state, it's actually the province of a "state within" that acts as an internal insurgency. The Military-Industrial-Complex devised by President Truman is the work of such a 5GW conspiracy-within-the-state.

Blue Circle encompasses the Realm of the State Red Circle encompasses the Realm of the Non-State

The take-away from this visualization is as follows:

  • each 'higher' generation of war is less kinetically intense than the one before it.
  • Further, states tend to be victorious in areas where intensity is high but not overwhelming -- between 2GW and 3GW.
  • At the same time, non-states tend to be victorious at low but not underwhelming kinetic intensity -- between 3GW and 5GW.
  • Finally, 1GW and 5GW fall outside the realms of both the state and the non-state, and into the lands of the proto-state and the state-within.

Thanks to Ryan Luke of Social Engage, and of course my co-authors on this blog, for the questions and criticisms that made this post possible.

The United States already has seven uniformed services

  • Air Force
  • Army
  • Coast Guard
  • Marine Corps
  • Navy
  • NOAA Corps
  • Public Health Service

While the latter two are relatively toothless, the first five on the list do show that uniform services can become critical.

Give Them Guns

While at the Boyd Conference, one questioner asked a panel composed of William Lind, Frank Hoffman, and Bruce Goodmanson if they could help with a new legislative initiative to be proposed shortly: create a Uniformed Service under the Department of Homeland Security. I regret not writing down the questioner's name. This is an amazingly exciting proposal, for one reason: capabilities create intentions.

In the panel proper, Bruce explained how the trench warfare of World War I was enabled by the large gun factories created by the British and French for a naval war against each other that never happened. Nonetheless, the ability to mass produce lots of very large guns remained after the English Channel Threat had passed. So when a new problem (German aggressiveness) came up, warfighters reached for the tools they already had: in that case, including large artillery pieces.

If this sounds familiar, it should. While pre-Great-War Britain and France featured miniature Military-Industrial-Artillery complexes, the United States currently possesses an enormous Military-Industrial-Leviathan-Complex (MILC). While the MILC has largely outlived its usefulness -- what was once our front-line defense against a Soviet takeover of the world is now relegated to topping the odd tyrant and defending Taiwan -- the way it enabled our 5GW against Soviet Communism is something we must always be greatful for.

Now it is time to build a Military-Industrial-Sysadmin-Complex (MISC) to win our 5GW to shrink the gap. Because 5GW relies on observation and not orientation, it does not matter if policy makers intend to fight the 5GW at the outset, so long as what they observe leads them to do so anyway. You know the old expression, "when you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail?" The 5GWarrior who wishes to shrink the gap must think the same way. We need to give our policy makers a Military-Industrial-Sysadmin-Complex so that more problems in the Gap looks like jobs for the Sysadmin.

Creating a uniformed service under Homeland Security is a way to do this. It does not matter if policy makers originally see the Homeland Security Corps as a tool for rescuing people from hurricanes, fighting forest fighters, or state-building in Arab Africa. All that matters is that it has the capability to do system administration, in the same way that those old naval guns had the capability to do trench warfare.

Capabilities create intentions. Shrink the Gap. Build a Gap-Shrinking-Platform.

Create the Homeland Security Corps.

At the Boyd Conference I had the pleasure of listening to William Lind share his idea of 4GW, was in the context of everything else. Lind is an excellent speaker, and I regret not being able to talk to him in person. (He was clearly in demand). My general impression of him is this limited exclusively to the words in his speech.

Lind does enormous damage to his cause.

Willian Lind is primarily an opponent of multiculturalism, especially in its cultural marxist manifestation. In this he is similar to John Norman, a fellow academic who is primarily an opponent of femnism, especially in its cultural marxist guise. Both Bill and John find themselves essentially as academics, in a world where cultural marxism is very influential and where speaking out against it confines you to an intellectual ghetto.

Unfortunately, both thinkers responded to this with extreme rhetoric unlikely to earn friends, and very likely to further discredit their own idea. Lind and Norman marginalize the opposition to cultural marxism, by transforming intellectual debate into cult membership (in the sociological sense). This may help them attract intellectually vigorous malcontents, but it defeats the purpose.

As a conservative, as an anti-multiculturalist and ant-feminist (at least in the cultural marxist sense), I sympathize with both Norman and Lind. But they cannot be taken seriously. They are the Ayn Rands and Robert Welches of our day

Bill Lind is right that the intellectual environment of the west has been sick since the trenches. We need to get society right. And unfortunately for our sentimentalities, we have to do it without misguided radicals, like Lind. Or Norman, for that matter.

William Lind on 5GW

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Considering his recent comments on 5GW, given at the 2007 Boyd Conference in Quantico, Virginia

No 5GW is in sight. "No eyes can see that far."

and

"Concepts of 5GW are meer attempts to ignore the breadth of 4GW."

and

"There are vital, unexplored parts of 4GW [which may be misdescribed as 5GW]."

and

"There will be more central elements [of 4GW] manifesting themselves."

Consideirng all this, and his earlier comment that he refused to use computers, I think we should invite him to be a guest poster on this blog!

After I described how we will lose the war of ideas to al Qaeda and therefore must search for a better way of winning, Curtis asked that I be more precise. Specifically, how would I build a 5GW that can lead America to victory even after conceding the 4GW battlespace to al Qaeda? And how should the centerpeice of our 5GW to shrink the gap, the Military-Industrial-Sysadmin-Complex, look like?

The Military-Industrial-Sysadmin Complex (MISC) is a broader version of Thomas P.M. Barnett's "Department of Everything Else (DOEE)." While Barnett's DOEE takes on, the "miscellaneous" functions of the federal government involved in processing politically bankrupt states, the MISC is the broader structure which keeps the long war going.

The Military-Industrial-Sysadmin-Complex must be built around an Iron Triangle of Congress, the Department of Everything Else, and Sysadmin Contractors.

A Typical Iron Triangle

Each edge of the MISC supports each other. The Virutal Department of Everything Else funnels money to contractors. The contractors provide jobs for voters and therefore votes for incumbent Congressmen. Congressmen fund the Virtual Department of Everything Else.

The Iron Triangle that will Shrink the Gap

Just as the Military-Industrial-Leviathan-Complex that won the Cold War existed in all its pieces before the National Security Act of 1947, each part of the Iron Triangle can be assembled from politicians

The Congress

  • 435 Representatives, of both parties

  • 100 Senators, of both parties

The Department of Everything Else

The Sysadmin Contractors

  • Lockheed Martin (especially their integration unit)

  • Blackwater (and related security contractors)

  • Enterra (and other provides of development in a box)

  • &c

In shrinking the gap, as in most of politics, principles are fine, but steady cash flows are better.

Defeat al Qaeda. Win the Long War. Shrink the Gap. Build the Military-Industrial-Sysadmin-Complex.

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

“Before the discovery of Australia, people of the Old World were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence. The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists (and others extremely concerned with the coloring of birds), but that is not where the significance of the story lies. It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from the observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge. One single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is one single (and, I am told, quite ugly) black bird.”

The Black Swan deserves a prominent place on the 5G warrior's bookshelf. The concepts explored by Nassim Nicholas Taleb are the very mechanisms by which a 5GW campaign, as we have explored it, will function. Black Swans strike at the critical vulnerability for which there is no defense because we are not even aware we are vulnerable. As Taleb points out, if on September 10, 2001 it had been reasonably conceivable that terrorists were going to hijack planes and crash them into large buildings the events of September 11, 2001 would be unlikely to have occurred. Identifying these vulnerabilities on the systemic and strategic level is what 5GW is all about.

So, what exactly is a Black Swan event?

“First, it is a outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”

Best of all the text flows in an easy, almost conversational manner (I’ll bet Taleb is a really fun guy to hang around with) and the examples are interesting even when exploring really theoretical territory. However, I think this quote sums up the reason to find this book and study it carefully more than any other.

“ Black Swan logic makes what you don’t know far more relevant than what you do know.”

Find out what you don’t know.

America cannot win a 4GW -- a long-term war of ideas -- because she will betray herself first. Within a generation of the enslavement of Europe and China to Stalinism, arrogant American liberals combined with comfortable American leftists to do their best to defeat American action in the Vietnam War, and make South-East Asia safe for Communism.

If history repeats itself, or at least rhymes, within a generation of 9/11 active support of al Qaeda inspired movements should be fashionable on college campuses.

The reason that this treasonous behavior is more common among the left and the right is pretty clear: left-of-center politics is centered around the ideas such as "society should speak with more than one voice." As long as one system is powerful -- and America's system is powerful, because it serves her citizens and her own future needs very well -- the leftism distrust of authority will lead many of them to support whatever movement seems most able to destable the established order.

As a method of defending our country, 4GW is passe.

While America cannot win a 4GW, she can win a 5GW -- a war of hidden movements. America won the Cold War because, in spite of losing popular support for the struggle against Communism, she created institutions that kept the war going regardless of the will of the people or most political leaders. The Military-Industrial complex that gave America the ability to fight a world war long after the intellectual elite had despaired over nuclear "victory" was central to success.

To win this Long War against al Qaeda and her friends, we have to fight a 5GW. We have to build a Military-Industrial complex for fighting all Qaeda -- what one might call a "Military-Industrial-Systems Administration-Complex" after the work of Thomas P.M. Barnett -- long after political will has evaporated. We need an iron triangle of bureaucrats, contractors, and Congressmen to support the war out of reasons that have nothing to do with ideology, or else we will lose this war once the ideological pendulum has swung.

In a recent post, Dr. Barnett points out that there are now more contractors than soldiers in Iraq. This is a good sign, but not good enough. Future wars must be fought by locals, by private contractors, and others who are not motivated by ideology. That's the way 5th Generation Wars are won. That's the way the 5GW against al Qaeda will be won.

I've written three major posts on the 5th Generation of Modern Warfare

Additionally, there is an excellent blog dedicated to 5GW theory, named Dreaming 5GW after my original post, that I suggest that all check out.

I found three 5GW related posts on Mitchell Langbert's Blog.


In the first, he references another post mostly. His juices go flowing and two minutes later he posted Fifth Generation Warfare: 4GW No Longer Applies and wrote:

The model of 4th generation warfare as enunciated by Thomas Hammes and others is rooted in the insurgencies that Mao led in China and Ho Chi Min led in Vietnam.
[...]

However, the insurgencies he describes are mostly communist or leftist and prevailed in the age of radio and television. Such insurgencies were not Islamic, and pre-existed technological innovations that have occurred since the days of the Vietnam War, namely, the internet and cellular phones.

...then...

New technology, Islamic values and relations radically change the implications of Hammes's strategic model. In some ways, Islamic culture makes fifth generation conflict more like pre-modern warfare.
I could not find his definition...so it his def may be the default "that thing that comes after 4GW".

There is a nudge toward a definition at the end:

In particular, the interactivity of Islamic belief with military action means that a more total approach to war might be necessary than it would be with insurgencies that are built on shorter term loyalties to the personalities of specific leaders. 4GW may be passe.
This seems to moving toward Arherring's working definition:

An emergent theory of warfare premised upon manipulation of multiple
economic, political, social and military forces in multiple domains to
effect positional changes in systems and achieve a consilience of
effects to leverage a specific goal or set of circumstances.

Two more minutes later he wrote in The Need for Counter-4GW:

If Lind, Hammes and other advocates of 4GW are right, it seems to me that the response will not come from the state, which is bound by special interest groups. Rather, it needs to come from private individuals who respond to the terrorists' 4GW with counter-4GW. This would involve standing up to the media and our leaders who are motivated by personal interest in responding to special interest group pressure rather than the national welfare.
I think 5GW responses by citizens to shortcoming in their state's response to 4GW will emerge (if they haven't already).

[Cross-posted to Purpleslog]

As information about this plot comes out I think I see a 5GW or proto-5GW aspect to it.

It seems that every person in the cell responsible for this plot is not only a foreigner (unlike the London subway bombing which was 'homegrown') but a member of the medical profession. I think at last count 2 doctors, a couple of medical students, and a lab technician or two. This tripped my radar and I began thinking "Is this a pattern or is it a deliberate lack of a pattern? Why all foreigners (from Jordan, Iraq and India)? Why all medical workers?"

It also didn't make sense to me because I immediately thought that 'terrorists' with this type of professional training would be better tasked for creating bio-weapons in their basement. These are allegedly rare and valuable skills for terrorists, why are they using these people to emplace car bombs and ram airports. Do they have that many doctors sitting around or do they not have any ambition to release weaponized anthrax or ebola on the world?

But then the newscaster gave me the 5GW angle. Handed it to me on a platter in fact as she began to recite how many foreign medical workers are currently employed by the British healthcare system and how they have a desperate shortage they are straining to fill (900 or so Iraqi doctors alone). And now this will mean the 'rigorous' screening foriegn medical workers already undergo before they are hired will need to be even more exhaustive.

That is the 5GW attack!

It had nothing to do with car bombs, airports, or body counts. This 4GW proxy attack was just as effective (maybe more so) in failure as it would have been in success. The terrorism rule set changes little, the system in place looks like it works. The plots were foiled and the terrorists were captured.

The 5GW attack was on the heathcare system of the UK. Are people going to be able to trust their doctor now? Trust is essential between doctors and patients and here is a big wedge to be driven in. Also, as the system is shocked by that distrust the ability of the system to adress the shortfall has now been hamstrug.

Rule Set! - System Perturbation! - New Rule set?

By my count, Anglophone North America ex Canada is on its fifth legal regime. The First Republic was the Congressional regime, which illegally abolished the British colonial governments. The Second Republic was the Constitutional regime, which illegally abolished the Articles of Confederation. The Third Republic was the Unionist regime, which illegally abolished the principle of federalism. The Fourth Republic is the New Deal regime, which illegally abolished the principle of limited government.

[snip]

The key to power in the Fourth Republic is that no one who has power wants anyone to think of them as having power. For example, in the traditional iron triangle, legislators do not have power. They are just expressing the will of the people. Civil servants do not have power. They are just making public policy. Lobbyists do not have power. They are just communicating their concerns.

This is a profoundly Orwellian situation. The root of the problem is that the modern English language has no word which means "power," but carries only positive associations.

Perhaps the most important fact about power is that the powerful are almost always sincere. They honestly believe they are doing good. Every Sauron considers himself a Boromir. And - as Acton observed - every Boromir has an inner Sauron. Since this is widely recognized, and since "power" is generally associated with "evil," the people in the US who have actual power do not and cannot think of themselves as having power.

However, there are euphemisms for it. Perhaps the most common is "responsibility."

A good way to find the most powerful people in the US is to find the most responsible people. No one in the US is scheming for power. A lot of them seem to be working for change. No one in the US is brainwashing the masses. A lot of them seem to be educating the public. No one in the US is ruling the world. A lot of them seem to be making global policies.

[snip]

Let's say that to be a "major vertex" of the Polygon, you need two attributes. One, a vertex must have power - that is, responsibility. Two, it must be protected from public opinion - that is, insulated from "politics," that is, democracy. If you have one of these but not the other, you are at best a "minor vertex."

["The iron polygon: power in the United States," Mencius MoldbugUnqualified Reservations, 5-12-2007.]

The "Orwellian situation" described by Mencius Moldbug is peculiar, for this reason:  the situation leads to abnegation, not only public but private as well.

The reason that "power" does not carry only positive associations is:

  1. "power" is value neutral;
  2. the word addresses our relation to what we are not, particularly our ability to affect or alter what we are not, and alternatively, the ability of what we are not to affect or alter us;
  3. this relation may take "positive" or "negative' valuations depending on context and personal understandings of various moral imperatives;
  4. and so "power" as a singular and general concept of force relations, applicable to many situations, cannot have "only positive associations".

The complexity of modern life produces static.   Static in turn produces doubt about these relations, and within such doubt negativity is never ruled out, is itself never negated.

ab·ne·gate tr.v. 1. To give up (rights or a claim, for example); renounce. 2. To deny (something) to oneself. [Latin abnegare, abnegat-, to refuse : ab-, away; see AB-1 + negare, to deny; see ne below.].

We do not deny the possibility that we ourselves may be denied.  A bigger fish always swims somewhere in the ocean; we as individuals have severe limits.  Therefore, we may often preemptively deny ourselves, or abnegate responsibility, when addressing the future with nothing but static as a guide.

Such abnegation is perverse:  by preemptively denying ourselves responsibility for the future, we are essentially trying to say, In the future, what-we-are-not cannot deny us power which we have rejected already.  It is an attempt to retain power, primarily defensive power, from the unacknowledged understanding that the best defense is a good offense.  We would deny to all future entities the power to deny us, or to negate us, by negating ourselves preemptively; yet, our attempt really depends upon negating them into perpetuity.  I.e., the areas where what-we-are-not may have the "power" to affect us or alter us in the future determine the line we would draw limiting those entities; "You shall not pass!!"  To sell that message, the private individual, through abnegation, would tell those entities that passing the line is unnecessary:  "We cede responsibility, already."

Mencius Moldbug attempts to address the public face of this abnegation by showing the absurdity of the dance.  As a proto-5GW maneuver, the reassurance of successful "personal abnegation" will have a dual effect:

  • "Corporations" -- whether strictly governmental or the shadow-governmental MSM, etc. -- would seek to appear powerless and "safe."  They will not pass the line you have drawn.  Whenever they do appear to cross the line, they apologize profusely.
  • Such corporate public abnegation would therefore promote the feeling of personal power.  "You, as a citizen of the U.S., have the real power.  We merely follow the polls.  We merely recognize the market forces -- your demand -- when we act.  We are giving you the displays you wish to see."

The perversity of the dance must be viewed as a later step in the linear evolution of the U.S.  That is, the Constitution of the U.S. is primarily a reactionary document, designed originally as a intentional counter-stroke directed against tyranny; it instituted the mob which had heretofore been a subject of the crown, and the mob has been taught its proper place ever since.  Any future king would need to stress, as forcefully as possible, that he merely sits on his ass when he sits the throne.

You may ponder that last paragraph from a 5GW perspective.  Theorists make a great mistake, similar to Mencius Moldbug's mistake, when they suppose the existence of non-human corporations. While it is true that Mencius Moldbug implies that these corporations have individuals within them who have the greatest responsibility and the greatest power --

A good way to find the most powerful people in the US is to find the most responsible people.

[MM]

-- he also negates this observation when he later focuses on The New York Times (and more broadly, the MSM) and other corporations:

The major vertices of the Polygon, by my count, are the press, the universities, the judiciary, the Fed and the banks, the "Hill" (congressional staff), the civil service proper, the NGOs and transnationals, the military, the Beltway bandits (defense and other contractors), and corporate holders of official monopolies (such as "intellectual property").

[MM]

On the surface, MM's Polygon makes sense.  But it really does not.  The individuals within his Polygon are members of the mob as well, subject to the vicissitudes of power/abnegation.  The need to appear "safe"  promotes actual negation as well as  public displays of self-negation.  Any corporation which would make an overt attempt at a coup, or the capturing of the U.S., would instantly face a million foes; thus, every corporation is limited, somewhat negated, denied some types of activity.  Furthermore, these collections of humans are not collectives in the purest sense; within those collections, the need to appear safe to others within the collection limits the activity of each.  True, this public face of abnegation may at heart be an attempt to exert power, or to preemptively negate all future competitors by turning their eyes away from what we are doing; but rarely do we find only one person, within the U.S. or within these collections of individuals, operating in this way.  Rather, we find multitudes striving for power indirectly; or perhaps we suspect multitudes when we see the static.

We may fantasize that the individual U.S. citizen has absolved himself of all responsibility, thus placing great power in the hands of others who are his unacknowledged, and uncontrollable, delegates --

We can tell this by the fact that they write many stories on the subject. Surely if they didn't want us to think about the subject, it is within their personal discretion to avoid it. They don't. And since many people read the New York Times, many of us are concerned about global warming.

[MM]

-- but in order to do so, we must rule out the Mob.  Do you see how Mencius Moldbug has preemptively and openly negated the Mob?  To tell us that so many of us are entirely powerless once The New York Times has written a story is to inspire us to reject The New York Times peremptorily. It is as if Mencius Moldbug has decided to speak in the name of the Times in order to make the Times admit overtly that the paper has such control over the minds of readers; thus, ensuring the blowback.  Mencius Moldbug attempts to be our friend; Mencius Moldbug has read the polls and serves the people.  True, we may wonder if MM really speaks as a friend by calling the people of the U.S. idiots who are susceptible to the influence of the MSM; but instead of insulting everyone, the message merely plays into their own fantasy of abnegation:  they have ceded power to the MSM (most individuals do not want to bother with collecting the news first-hand themselves) which is abusing that power; the people must rise up. This is the perverse dance, through which individuals claim weakness in order to dominate.

You may ponder the invention of the cryptocalvinist in the same light, if you like.

Incidentally, this is why so much gridlock happens.  You think the MSM is not mired in gridlock, unlike the U.S. Congress?  Would you rail against the MSM's failure to address certain topics, in certain styles, or else because it produces banality on a regular basis when purportedly reporting "the news."  We can also see how the MSM has increasingly become the laughingstock, the Foe, the Great Evil in America, not only for the American Right but also for the Left (a la Michael Moore and other left-leaning liberals).

The dual nature of this 5GWish abnegation should not be ignored.  The individual citizens of the U.S.do not really believe they are powerless regardless of how much they deny responsibility for the future.  Some of these individuals seek positions which they believe will increase their power, but they may only attain those positions after jumping through many hoops set by others within the Mob.  Having attained those positions, to the degree that they are actually forced to operate in a 5GW manner, they must utilize the fantasies of others within the Mob -- their constituents -- in order to gain and keep "hands in the field."  They do not actually negate the rest of the Mob, but the contrary; and the Mob does not actually negate itself, but the contrary. 

A true representation of a Polygon with powerful/responsible
vertices would require the realization of individuals who are not subject
to the vicissitudes of personal or public abnegation.  I.e., the true Polygon would require heroes in the strictest Greek sense.  They would be above and beyond the dance -- really, outside the dance, yet from their privileged place they would appear to serve the needs of all -- or else, dominate so decisively no questioning of their authority would occur. They would not be forced by the public to negate themselves (nor would privately feel the need) but would be loved for their power and responsibility or hated for their power and responsibility without opposition.

At present, what we have is not a polygon, but a danse macabre, or the whinging and vying produced by the confusion of static. Do vertices emerge within the static? Sure, but they are weak and capricious, too volatile to form a polygon in any meaningful sense. Anyone who posits a present Polygon of Power is merely another dancer vying for the right to dominate.

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