The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Before the discovery of Australia, people of the Old World were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence. The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists (and others extremely concerned with the coloring of birds), but that is not where the significance of the story lies. It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from the observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge. One single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is one single (and, I am told, quite ugly) black bird.”

The Black Swan deserves a prominent place on the 5G warrior’s bookshelf. The concepts explored by Nassim Nicholas Taleb are the very mechanisms by which a 5GW campaign, as we have explored it, will function. Black Swans strike at the critical vulnerability for which there is no defense because we are not even aware we are vulnerable. As Taleb points out, if on September 10, 2001 it had been reasonably conceivable that terrorists were going to hijack planes and crash them into large buildings the events of September 11, 2001 would be unlikely to have occurred. Identifying these vulnerabilities on the systemic and strategic level is what 5GW is all about.

So, what exactly is a Black Swan event?

“First, it is a outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”

Best of all the text flows in an easy, almost conversational manner (I’ll bet Taleb is a really fun guy to hang around with) and the examples are interesting even when exploring really theoretical territory. However, I think this quote sums up the reason to find this book and study it carefully more than any other.

“ Black Swan logic makes what you don’t know far more relevant than what you do know.”

Find out what you don’t know.