Over eight decades after the Ottoman slaughter of some one and one half
million Armenians the US Congress has seen fit to introduce a bill that
will define said Ottoman endeavor in a most accurate fashion applying
the label genocide. Why the sudden interest in a near century old
atrocity? According to Nancy Pelosi:
One could toss that explanation into the category of political subterfuge. What's most interesting here is not the very obvious recognition of Armenian genocide but the timing of this sudden geo-political epiphany. Turkey has long struggled with the Kurdish/Marxist separatist group, the PKK and in recent months began amassing military power along the Turkish/Iraqi border in preparation for possible crossborder operations designed to repress or destroy the PKK network that exists (in much the same fashion of the Taliban in western Pakistan) within Kurdish Iraq. The interesting bit is this piece of legislation comes about (in a very publicized fashion) at the same time that the Turkish parliament is hashing out whether or not such military operations will take place.
The Democrats seem to be running what might well be defined as a very nascent 5GW operation against what will be the political 800 pound gorilla should they ascend to Executive power: The inheritance of the Iraq war.
Knowing full well that the most efficient route to ending the Iraq war (a strict redefinition of the funding) leads to political suicide the Democrats are increasingly more reliant on more subtle designs for usurping the increasingly flagging popular support, both domestic and geo-politically, for the Iraq war. Through a political stunt that has, on it's face, the compassionate recognition of travesty the Democrats might well deliver three mortal blows to the Bush administration's Iraq policy:
1. The effective severance of a very important strategic way point in terms of supplying the war effort. Turkish military leaders have promised military relations with the US will "never be the same again" and that America has, by proposing this bill, effectively "shot it's own foot."
2. The erasure of what is/was the only success of American policy in Iraq from Bush Sr. to Bush Jr. A stable, democratic, pro-American Iraqi Kurdistan.
3. Yet more ideological ammunition for al qaeda as another non-Arab military with an oppositional strategy to the current occupying non-Arab military enters en force into the fray. Political collapse within Iraq's rather tenuous "government."
The Bush administration and fellow Republicans are relegated to somehow denying the Democrat's initiative and at the same time showing a degree of recognition and compassion for what was genocide. In this respect one belligerent entails the moral message but with a destructive agenda (the collapse of current Iraq policy.) The other entails a morally repugnant (denying a very obvious genocide) message but with an agenda that hopes to maintain the hard fought for and built infrastructure for a war.
The anti-war crowd has handily mastered the media both through political spin and the unsung American idiom that Bad News is Good News in terms of marketability. By seizing this apparent axiom the Democrats have built a sound domestic framework for taking apart the Iraq war in terms of popular support. This latest piece of legislature might well prove to be the final blow as it very effectively concentrates on dissolving the strategic framework for much of the Iraq effort.
"because many of the survivors are very old."
One could toss that explanation into the category of political subterfuge. What's most interesting here is not the very obvious recognition of Armenian genocide but the timing of this sudden geo-political epiphany. Turkey has long struggled with the Kurdish/Marxist separatist group, the PKK and in recent months began amassing military power along the Turkish/Iraqi border in preparation for possible crossborder operations designed to repress or destroy the PKK network that exists (in much the same fashion of the Taliban in western Pakistan) within Kurdish Iraq. The interesting bit is this piece of legislation comes about (in a very publicized fashion) at the same time that the Turkish parliament is hashing out whether or not such military operations will take place.
The Democrats seem to be running what might well be defined as a very nascent 5GW operation against what will be the political 800 pound gorilla should they ascend to Executive power: The inheritance of the Iraq war.
Knowing full well that the most efficient route to ending the Iraq war (a strict redefinition of the funding) leads to political suicide the Democrats are increasingly more reliant on more subtle designs for usurping the increasingly flagging popular support, both domestic and geo-politically, for the Iraq war. Through a political stunt that has, on it's face, the compassionate recognition of travesty the Democrats might well deliver three mortal blows to the Bush administration's Iraq policy:
1. The effective severance of a very important strategic way point in terms of supplying the war effort. Turkish military leaders have promised military relations with the US will "never be the same again" and that America has, by proposing this bill, effectively "shot it's own foot."
2. The erasure of what is/was the only success of American policy in Iraq from Bush Sr. to Bush Jr. A stable, democratic, pro-American Iraqi Kurdistan.
3. Yet more ideological ammunition for al qaeda as another non-Arab military with an oppositional strategy to the current occupying non-Arab military enters en force into the fray. Political collapse within Iraq's rather tenuous "government."
The Bush administration and fellow Republicans are relegated to somehow denying the Democrat's initiative and at the same time showing a degree of recognition and compassion for what was genocide. In this respect one belligerent entails the moral message but with a destructive agenda (the collapse of current Iraq policy.) The other entails a morally repugnant (denying a very obvious genocide) message but with an agenda that hopes to maintain the hard fought for and built infrastructure for a war.
The anti-war crowd has handily mastered the media both through political spin and the unsung American idiom that Bad News is Good News in terms of marketability. By seizing this apparent axiom the Democrats have built a sound domestic framework for taking apart the Iraq war in terms of popular support. This latest piece of legislature might well prove to be the final blow as it very effectively concentrates on dissolving the strategic framework for much of the Iraq effort.
This is very, very interesting Soob. I think that hidden motives lie behind the vote, although at the same time I doubt that many Democrats voting for the resolution had rationalized the situation as well as you have. Perhaps they've merely wanted to assert their independence from the Bush world view and chart a new course; drawing Turkey into Iraq might not be seen as a method of causing even more chaos in Iraq but of moving toward trifurcation and American withdrawal. (So the negative you see in Iraq might be a positive ultimately, a la Barnett's 5GW dream: a back-door method of implementing the Baker-Hamilton plan. I.e., ratchet up the stakes for the local nations, draw them and who know who else in to take over SysAdmin work after America retreats in failure.)
I'm a little iffy on your analysis of the al-Qaeda benefit. While an invasion by Turkey would help destabilize Kurdistan, and further destabilization of Iraq helps al-Qaeda, some rumors (!) exist putting Turkey and Iran in league against the PKK. (Syria's probably in on that as well.) In fact, al-Qaeda is as much opposed to Iran as to America, given the split in Islam -- al Qaeda could get squeezed from several sides. However, perhaps the al-Qaeda 5GW plan (if it even exists) is coming to fruition.
Subadei, as I mentioned over at your blog, this is the best analysis of the Congressional resolution on the Armenians that I've read, anywhere.
Curtis, thanks for the deeper analysis. As far as al qaeda is concerned, further elaboration:
Turkish incursion into northern Iraq opens up a new venue for exploitation by al qaeda. Much in the same fashion that sectarian violence was fueled by the bombing of the Samarra mosque, ethnic violence could well be ignited by some well timed "false flag" bombings or acts of violence along the Turkish/Iraqi border.
Dan,
Thanks again.