Nuts and Bolts

Black Swan 5GW:

If you haven’t read Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s excellent book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, (my review here) you should, it is required reading for 5GW theory. In short a Black Swan is an event that invalidates a system.  By definition it is something that you are unprepared for. Black Swan 5GW is used to invalidate systems and rule-sets. Ideally to my mind, the 5GW organization would be able to replace the invalidated system with a new system that achieves its objective, but there may be other reasons for invalidating a system or rule-set. Perhaps a competing rule-set offers better opportunity for 5GW manipulation or perhaps the situation is such that an existing system or rule-set is an impediment to a desirable though painful improvement.  Potentially a 5GW organization may prepare for Gray Swans, events that are possible though unpredictable and/or unlikely, yet present opportunity to establish a new system. An example of this might include some sort of natural disaster.

Stimulus / Response 5GW (Automaticity 5GW)

The second type of 5GW sometimes works in conjunction with the first in order to strengthen or reinforce a newly created system. In this type of 5GW, the 5GW organization intentionally triggers a specific rule-set in order to create a specific response. A good example of this is a fire-alarm. When you trigger a fire alarm at an office building typically the local fire department responds. When you trigger the alarm for a forest fire there is a similar response, but that response is most likely different in scale and may involve different responders from a different geographic area. The 5GW organization may trigger a rule-set  for any number of reasons, but always to provoke a specific response. It may be to desensitize responders or observers. It may be to decrease the resources and abilities of responders through attrition or (hat tip: TDAXP) cognitive load. It may also be to increase experience in certain situations and thereby increase resiliency versus a competing system or rule-set, or to introduce subtle change into behaviors in certain situations.

As I stated before, I’m not willing to limit 5GW to these two methods of action. 5GW is far too new and complex for that. However, I do see them as core elements of 5GW action . Additionally I would like to note that in isolation I don’t believe either of these methods can be considered a 5GW campaign. A true 5GW campaign would likely entail a great many instances of each of these methods of attack directed at several targets. It is only in the larger scope that the pattern would begin to emerge and the goal of the 5GW organization would be achieved.