COPYCAT CLOUDS
Close to a month ago, a deranged individual went on a stabbing spree in Tokyo. The incident might not have been big news here but it certainly shocked the Japanese. Now, however, it appears that the Internet is full of threats to commit similar—or more gruesome—crimes. The science behind copycat crimes has never been conclusive—no one really knows whether the individuals who tend to commit them are already screwed up or whether the media attention creates a tipping effect.
What is novel is how online anonymity creates an outlet for sociopathic urges—and how those in cases like these the transmission of those urges seems to follow an emergent path. Manipulating and channeling copycat clouds virally would be a source of great power. It’s already been done to some extent—many riots in the developing world are organized via text message. But it’s not just a “Gap” problem. In Cronulla Beach, Australia, a wave of anonymous calls and text messages calling on white Australians to attack immigrants provoked a vicious race riot. There is a certain Puppetmaster potential inherent in the mobilizing power of media that so far has been largely untapped.
What is novel is how online anonymity creates an outlet for sociopathic urges—and how those in cases like these the transmission of those urges seems to follow an emergent path. Manipulating and channeling copycat clouds virally would be a source of great power. It’s already been done to some extent—many riots in the developing world are organized via text message. But it’s not just a “Gap” problem. In Cronulla Beach, Australia, a wave of anonymous calls and text messages calling on white Australians to attack immigrants provoked a vicious race riot. There is a certain Puppetmaster potential inherent in the mobilizing power of media that so far has been largely untapped.
Filed in The Vault and tagged Puppet Master, The Starfish and the Spider
I like the term copycat clouds. (Doesn't this happen already in the blogosphere, btw?) Whether it can safely be used to cause enough people to act out on what they read or see in media, to be useful, is a serious question. Copycat clouds don't seem to be very dependable, at least not to the degree that a 5GWer could know 1) the cloud would form, 2) it would be extensive enough, 3) it would cause a large effect suitable for the 5GW purpose, without 4) evolving or changing in a way at cross-purposes with the 5GW plan.
That said, for smaller booms, tying into a larger picture, copycat clouds might have an additive effect: the proverbial feather that broke the camel's back?
Incidentally, quite possibly a 5GW org would need to be on the lookout for copycat clouds moreso than use them. Copycat clouds might be a sort of memetic Big Bang or Black Swan resulting from their other activities in a reactionary sense.
One of the 5GW theory topics that has been in my mind to write on for a long time regards the law of unintended consequences (Every action you take will have several affects/effects you did not anticipate and at least one of them will be bad). While I do think it is possible to harness these clouds and use them in a 5GW manner I do think Curtis has a point. Clouds like this may be able to achieve a goal (either to start a movement or to test reponse) but the potential that the project will go off the rails becomes greater the more transient and decentraized the organization of the cloud becomes.
Arherring and Curtis,
I see copycat clouds as a means of 5GW groups to generate controlled chaos, perhaps for distraction or deception operations. I agree that they can't be the linchpin of an organization's strategy because they take on lives of their own.
I don't see blogs as an major example of copycat clouds. I'm more thinking about the example I cited in Cronulla beach, where the anonymous text messages were enough to trigger a riot. Think about the idea of someone triggering something like that, without detection.
*There is a certain Puppetmaster potential inherent in the mobilizing power of media that so far has been largely untapped.*
Not so. Call me a throwback, but in the 1990s (and earlier), this was at the heart of debates on ethnic conflict and collective mobilization through media messaging. The means were different - then, mostly radio and some television - but the effect was the same. In the aftermath, the trick of it all has been how to prove demonstrate command responsibility and prove criminal intent under circumstances of materially unclear command and control. Theorists get bogged down in philosophical debates over essentialism, instrumentalism, and social constructivism, which are important distinctions but ultimately distracting. Interesting to see all of this dovetail back to pre-911 issues.
Mike,
I know what you are referring to, but it's totally a different matter. The genocides in Rwanda and Bosnia took months and months of preparation, and the media outlets that bombarded the populace with racist propaganda did so over a long period of time. The violence was organized long in advance. What I'm describing is much more spontaneous.
Sure, there's a distinction to be made between event and process. That's also been an integral part of the debate, which precedes Rwanda and the Balkans by half a century and more. But I'm not convinced that there's a fundamental difference between case studies.
Where I do think there's a difference, though, is the time-scales required for mobilization. Highly compressed now, facilitated by ubiquitous, more efficient, and more persuasive communications technologies. Not my idea, not very original (sorry), but still holds true.
If I understand your point, it's that it comes down to cognition, to the psychological conditioning of "copycat crowds", ready instantly to shift and move, as opposed to those who are less attuned, whose mentalites suggest a more attenuated movement towards violence. Again, I think the issue is one of observable time-scales - there are processes involved either way.
Unless I walked in to this conversation too late and missed the whole point... entirely possible.
FYI, you might find this item on
Modeling Afghan Power Structures interesting. Probably very different from "copycat crowds", but reasoning by analogy might suggests some interesting possibilities on how groups of people work in different ways in different environments.
AE,
Great post - glad to have you back!
What are your thoughts on the flip side of your argument: Could the 'Net provide a vicarious mechanism for the benign expression of hostile wishes WITHOUT their subsequent execution? For instance, could it provide some Jungian outlet for expression or (in the case of first-person shooter games like Doom and GTA) simulated conduct that diminishes the likelihood of real people being attacked?
Mike,
First off thanks for adding Rethinking Security to the CoinLab feed on Complex Terrain. To address your point, I think there is something of a shift in time-scales, as well as a role in cognitive development to make certain individuals more prone to prompts-- but from the material you've provided with the Afghans I think we are talking about wholly different phenomenona. That being said, my speculation was very vague--and just something to be tossed out in the 5GW context. It's understandable that it may be confusing.
To clarify: what I am talking about is spontaneous acts of unrest or violence carried out by self-organizing, emergent organizations (such as mobs) triggered by media impulses, as well as the copycat criminals and threats that appear in clusters after major crimes. I advance no theory as to the mechanics of how this events occur, but only point out that they could be used in a 5GW context by a skilled manipulator to trigger unrest that would appear (both to the riot participants and the authorities) as wholly spontaneous.
I'm actually doing some research at the moment into crowd psychology and 20th century civil unrest to look at this manipulation process from the perspectives of both radical organizers and police plants within political organizations.
To answer Shane's question I do think that FPS and violent movies are doing a great job in providing an outlet for violent urges.
Adam,
RE: blogosphere. Actually, we may be talking matters of degree, perhaps on the K (kinetics) continuum. The kind of echo chamber that occurs in MSM as well as on blogs might actually lead some "copy cats" to mimic messages and political stances (for instance), which might in turn influence votes, buying habits, simple daily routines, and so forth. I.e., inspiring violence is not altogether different from other kinds of inspiration that affect large numbers of unseen victims/proxies. "An idea whose time has come" is the operative mechanism; the targets are already primed to be moved, in other ways.
Adam,
I've now used the term "copycat clouds" twice in a ZenPundit thread:
here
&
here
The last comment is probably more in line with your concept of the term:
that ubiquitous participation by elected officials on social networking sites, without serious safeguards, could leave open the possibility of hacking and impersonation, which might allow the creation of copycat clouds w/ cascading effects especially during times of heightened security threats (massive terrorist attacks, acts of warfare, and so forth.)
Of course, it could also leave open the possibility of some serious 5GW activity, domestic and foreign.